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The Karnataka elections are over but the implications of a decisive yet divisive mandate seems to be hitting the BJP hard in the state. The JD(S) and the Congress have stitched together a coalition and are likely to win the floor test convincingly — a sign of things to come for the BJP? Even in the Gujarat election, the Congress put up a good show, in fact scoring a moral victory over an electoral defeat.
If the minutes of a survey are to be considered, the time ahead will not be easy for the BJP and Prime Minister Narendra Modi. A survey conducted by ABP-CSDS predicts losses for the BJP in Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh, both of which are scheduled to conduct assembly elections later this year.
Here are the numbers:
Madhya Pradesh: The Congress is likely to surprise the BJP. The Congress is likely to get 49 percent vote share, BJP just 34 percent and others 17% if Assembly elections are held in the state today. It is to be noted that the BJP has had three consecutive governments in Madhya Pradesh. Even in the Lok Sabha polls, the Congress with a 49% vote share is leading with a comfortable margin over the BJP with a 34% vote share.
Rajasthan: The ABP-CSDS survey predicts the Congress is likely to make huge gains in Rajasthan, another BJP-ruled state. If the state goes to polls today, the Congress may bag a 44 percent vote share as against the BJP with 39 percent. Interestingly, the BJP had a 45 percent vote share in 2013 assembly elections against the Congress' 33 percent.
Bihar: Comfort for the BJP-JD(U) combine. The Nitish Kumar-led government has been able to keep the state happy, the survey suggests, adding that the alliance will perform exceptionally well, pipping Congress-RJD should elections be called in Bihar today.
Uttar Pradesh: The NDA’s vote share has plummeted in the state to 35 per cent while the vote share of other regional parties has increased to 53 per cent. The UPA’s vote share has increased marginally to a meagre 12 per cent. This shows an advantage to the SP-BSP combine.
Maharashtra: The survey pegs the vote share for NDA at 48 percent, UPA at 40 percent and the rest at 21% if the state goes to polls today. There is a hurdle for the BJP though — it will have to fight the polls with Shiv Sena, an ally that isn’t inclined to join forces with the party at the moment.
Gujarat: The survey indicates a surge in support of the Congress party and a drop in figures for the BJP. The survey pointed out that even though the margin of vote share between the Congress and the BJP is decreasing, the BJP still maintains a lead in the state with 54 percent vote share against Congress 42 percent.
West Bengal: Mamata Banerjee’s Trinamool Congress (TMC) remains dominant with a possible 44 percent vote share, while the BJP may get just 24 percent in the eastern state, the survey suggests.
Eastern India: NDA continues to be people’s choice in eastern India. If Lok Sabha elections are held today, the NDA will likely get 86-94 out of 142 seats; UPA 22-26 and others 26-30, the survey suggests.
In 2014, NDA had won just 58 seats in eastern India, UPA 21 and others 63.
Western and Central India: NDA continues to maintain lead over the UPA
In 2014, 51 percent supported NDA, 28 percent UPA while 21 percent others. According to the survey, 60 percent of people have supported NDA, while UPA is backed by just 34 percent citizens and 6 percent others. The overall numbers have projected that the NDA will win 274 seats, while the UPA will get a boost with 164 seats as against 60 in the 2014 general elections. Other parties should get around 105 seats, the survey has suggested.
Survey Stats: A total of 15,859 respondents participated in the survey conducted across 19 states between April 22 and May 17.
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