The death of Union minister and Lok Janshakti Party (LJP) chief Ram Vilas Paswan will have a bearing on the upcoming assembly elections in Bihar, his native state where his son Chirag Paswan is leading the party’s solo electoral fight.
Days before senior Paswan’s demise, Chirag decided to pull out of NDA and field candidates against Nitish Kumar’s Janata Dal (United) but not against Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), a decision backed by his father.
BJP has, however, been asserting that Nitish Kumar remains the NDA’s chief ministerial face. The party even issued warnings to the non-NDA players using Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s posters for campaigning, referring to the LJP’s approach of citing the “path of progress shown by PM Narendra Modi" to garner votes.
But, Paswan’s death, twenty days before the first phase of Bihar polls, has potential to change the poll dynamics. Chirag, considered a novice otherwise, might be able to galvanise support and position himself strongly, analysts believe. His father, a nine-time member of Lok Sabha, was a political stalwart from Bihar and remained a prominent leader of the Paswan section of Dailts for more than five decades. Dalits comprise nearly 16 per cent of voters in Bihar.
“The death will have a definite impact on Bihar polls. Chirag might get sympathy votes not just among Dalits but also from other castes,” NK Choudhary, political analyst and former head of the economics department at Patna University told Moneycontrol.
Founded by Paswan in 2000, LJP could never win enough seats to rule on its own in Bihar. But, it has tasted power and made its presence felt by stitching as well as undoing alliances.
Since 2005 when he parted ways with his ally Lalu Prasad Yadav and pulled out of UPA, Ram Vilas Paswan had seen himself as the ‘kingmaker’ of Bihar. In the two assembly elections held in February and October of 2005, he was instrumental in ensuring an end to the fifteen-year RJD rule and paving way for Nitish Kumar to become the chief minister of Bihar for the first time.
In the last assembly elections (2015), the JD (U) won 71 seats but as part of the Grand Alliance, with the RJD and the Congress among its partners. The BJP got 53 and the LJP only two of the 42 it contested, securing a vote share of 4.8 percent. The two parties had to sit in opposition until Nitish Kumar broke away from the Grand Alliance to go back to the NDA.
In his recent appeal to voters and party workers, Chirag had said that he had learnt from his father how to succeed in adverse conditions. Analysts believe that his father’s death can help him shed the “shehar ka ladka” (city boy) image and connect with voters from his caste who were otherwise unlikely to support him.
“Dalit voters, especially the Dusadh (Paswans), were not sure whether to support Paswan senior’s successor who mostly lived in Delhi. But with his father’s death, the voters might support Chirag on sympathy grounds,” said an analyst.
On his part, Chirag will find himself in a delicate position. With his father no more alongside him, he may want familiar faces to woo votes. Even his uncle, Pashupati Kumar Paras, who represents Hajipur Lok Sabha seat, once represented by Ram Vilas Paswan, had skipped the party’s last parliamentary board meeting, citing illness - according to sources
It will also be interesting to see how BJP will treat Chirag Paswan after his father’s death, especially when he has walked out of NDA and has been critical of Nitish Kumar, the NDA's chief ministerial face.
Voting has been staggered over three phases and counting will be held on November 10 in Bihar. Leading the NDA charge in the state, Kumar along with the BJP is aiming to retain power. The ruling coalition is being challenged by the Grand Alliance of the Tejashwi Yadav-led RJD, the Congress and other smaller parties.
An ambitious Chirag is keeping his options open by going it alone, analysts said. “If LJP performs well in the elections, he might as well bargain with NDA in Bihar or he might go with the the Grand Alliance,” Choudhary said
Many say Chirag, 37, has gone by his father’s playbook by pulling out of NDA, but it remains to be seen until the counting on November 10 if he can swing the elections as the senior Paswan did in 2005.
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