US President Joe Biden will meet his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping in San Francisco on Wednesday in an attempt to stabilise bilateral ties with the world’s second largest economy and America’s sole global rival.
The meeting takes place at a time when the possibility of a federal government shutdown is looming large and there are fears that Israel’s war against Hamas could widen into a regional conflict.
Republican members in the House of Representatives have not been able to agree to proposals to fund the government and the deadline to do so expires on November 17. In addition, the possibility of a regional conflict in the Middle East would force the US to support Israel and open a third front, stretching its military further. The US is involved in a proxy war against Russia in Ukraine and engaged in a war of nerves with China in the Taiwan Straits.
This will be the first meeting of the two leaders this year ahead of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit. It takes place a year after the two Presidents met in Bali during the G20 summit under Indonesia’s presidency.
The US agenda
Biden is likely to press Xi Jinping on the need to revive communications between the US and Chinese militaries to ensure their rivalry doesn’t turn into a conflict. They could also agree on the responsible use of AI applications and avoid them in the area of strategic weapons.
In Bali, the two leaders had agreed to stabilise their bilateral ties to avoid an unwarranted conflict. But an alleged Chinese spy balloon that crossed over to the US before it was shot down off the coast of South Carolina began a diplomatic crisis between the two in February.
In the past months the US has tried to lower the rising tension between the two by sending senior officials, including the US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken and US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen to Beijing to convince the Chinese leadership about the need for dialogue.
Chinese expectations
Xi would come to the meeting when there are concerns about the slowing down of China’s economy. China had hoped to bounce back and revive its economic growth after months of Covid-19 lockdown.
It has set a growth target of around 5 percent this year. But in recent months it has been beset with a number of challenges ranging from record youth unemployment, sluggish consumer spending, a shaky property market and flagging exports.
Beijing, too, would like stability in ties with the US as it is keen on attracting American investors and business to China. Despite the tensions, bilateral trade between the two nations is over $786 billion. Until 2022, FDI from the US in China was $126.1 billion, while Chinese investment in the US was over $26.88 billion. In recent months the US has assured China that America wants to protect its national security but does not seek to sever economic ties.
The Taiwan issue
Apart from discussions on economic relations and cooperation on climate change, the two leaders are likely to discuss a number of issues including Ukraine, the Israel-Hamas war and Taiwan, where their views differ.
Though Taiwan is a self-ruled island that has never been governed by Beijing, China claims it to be a breakaway province. A presidential election is due in Taiwan early next year and Biden wants to ensure China doesn’t interfere in the electoral process.
The US President would want an assurance from his Chinese counterpart that Beijing would not resort to force to bring about a reunification with Taiwan. Xi could seek America’s assurance that it would not encourage Taiwan’s independence.
The Middle East conflict
Some experts have argued that America’s involvement in a wider conflict in the Middle East could force it to reduce its military presence in the Taiwan Straits. This would be advantageous to China and could lead it to establish a claim over Taiwan.
China’s ambassador to the US, Xie Feng, said Beijing would look for reassurances from Washington that “it does not seek to change China’s system or start a Cold War”. China would also want the US to assure Beijing that it has no intention to seek decoupling from China.
But experts say Sino-US relations are facing severe challenges and there is still a long way to go before bilateral ties could improve and stabilise.
However, the US would want to ensure the war in the Middle East does not widen.
A regional conflict could disrupt oil supply and lead to further inflation, adding fresh strains on the global economy and affecting a large part of the world, especially the poor and developing countries. China’s relations with Iran have strengthened significantly in recent years.
Teheran is widely believed to be the main backer of Hamas and other regional militant groups that it could use to widen the conflict.
Biden could seek China’s help in convincing Iran not to escalate and widen the ongoing war as it would then have to face the consequences from the US. However, irrespective of the outcome of the Biden-Xi meeting, a regional conflict in the Middle East would largely depend on Israeli operations in Gaza.
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