Ahead of exit polls,pre- polls surveys predict big gains for BJP

After a high-octane campaigning for over two months, results for the five poll-bound states —Uttar Pradesh, Punjab, Goa, Uttarakhand and Manipur — will be announced on 11 March. But before the counting of votes begins and the results are out, poll pundits get on to number crunching to predict different scenarios. We at Firstpost have gathered the key pre-poll surveys in one place to get a mood of the election season.The data we are interpreting was collected till January 2017.First, we begin with the comparison of two major opinion polls — one conducted by Axis My India and another by CSDS, with the polls of polls aggregated by News18. The polls focussed on three states: Uttar Pradesh, Uttarakhand and Punjab.Uttar PradeshWhile the findings of Axis-My India gives the Samajwadi Party-Congress alliance 173 seats, the CSDS poll gives the alliance 19 more seats, taking its tally to 192. The News18 Polls of Polls, conducted in association with Gramener, a data science company, by aggregating the two polls, gives the alliance 181 seats.The arch-rival BSP continues to face bad news from the pollsters. While the CSDS is charitable enough to place BSP with at least 81 seats, Axis My India predicted that the BSP will win only 41 seats. On aggregation, the News18 master poll predicts that the party will win 57 seats.Let's go to the resurgent BJP. While the Axis My India poll puts BJP on top with 185 seats, the CSDS poll gives the saffron party only 123 seats. On aggregation, the master poll puts the final figure at 160 seats.UttarakhandMy Axis poll predicts a resounding victory for the BJP. While it expects the BJP to win 42 seats, it gives only 25 seats to the ruling Congress. The CSDS poll too gives the saffron party a majority. In the 70-member Assembly, it predicts the BJP to get a simple majority with 36 seats. Congress, the poll predicts, will slump to just 28 seats.The Polls of Polls by News18 puts the cumulative tally at 40 for BJP and 26 for the Congress.PunjabBoth the polls predict that the Congress will do well in the election. While the Axis My India poll gives the grand old party, 62 seats, the CSDS survey keeps it at 51, eight short of a majority. As far as debutante Aam Aadmi Party is concerned, it is not expected to win a majority, but if both polls are to be believed, the party is likely to do well for a first-timer. The Axis My India poll gives AAP 42 seats, and the CSDS poll gives the Kejriwal-led party 30 seats.However, it is bad news for the ruling BJP-SAD alliance. While the Axis My India predicts just 13 seats for the incumbent alliance, the CSDS polls seems more charitable, pegging the number of seats it can win at 32. An aggregate of the two polls puts Congress just one short of the majority at 58 seats, while the AAP comes second with 37 seats and the ruling SAD-BJP alliance at just 21 seats.Demonetisation drive and public opinion The five-state election is being held in the aftermath of the demonetisation drive which has been the talking point of politicians and pollsters alike. The election results will also be seen as a referendum on Modi's decision to demonetise the high-value currency notes.All the major pre-poll surveys sought public opinion on the demonetisation drive of the BJP-led NDA government at the Centre. In general terms, respondents in every poll are by and large supportive of the move. However, the ABP-Lokniti-CSDS poll also comes across respondents who support the idea but are apprehensive about its implementation. While 41 percent of the respondents in Uttar Pradesh are supportive of the note ban, 30 percent are supportive but they lambasted the poor implementation.The India Today-Axis poll recorded 42 percent positive response to the move, while 35 percent of the responses are negative.However, in the Times Now-VMR poll, 63 percent of the respondents in India's largest state supported prime minister Modi's plan while only 32 percent opposed it.GoaThe poll predicts a clear win for the BJP in the Goa Assembly, with 25 seats. The Congress, on the other hand, it predicts, will win only 13 seats while the debutant AAP may have to be content with just two seats. The poll also seeks to know people's choice for the post of chief minister of Goa.Around 35 percent of the total respondents want Defence Minister Manohar Parrikkar back as the chief minister. Former chief minister Digambar Kamat came a distant second, with 16 percent of the respondents wanting him to serve a second term. Incumbent Laxmikant Parsekar came third with 15 percent.While Parsekar may not have been a popular chief ministerial choice, people seem to have a high level of satisfaction with his government's performance.Fifty-three percent of the total respondents are reported to have expressed satisfaction with government's performance while only 44 percent of the respondents are unhappy with the saffron party's regime.Read more here