See Cong, BJP as clear rivals in 2014 polls: Shekhar Gupta

The rift created in the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) after LK Advani's resignation from all party positions will not have long term consequences, says Shekhar Gupta, editor-in-chief, Indian Express. 

Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) has been witnessing infighting amongst its leaders including Advani who is said to harbour prime ministerial ambitions. But the party selected its controversial leader Narendra Modi to head its election campaign, which had upset Advani.
Gupta agrees that with BJP's rift exposed, there is a high probability of a face off between Modi and Congress's Rahul Gandhi in 2014 general election campaign. However, he does not see Congress projecting Rahul Gandhi as prime minister. Gupta believes that to have real stability between the Congress and the BJP, there must be atleast 350 seats between the two of parties. Below is the verbatim transcript of Shekhar Gupta's interview on CNBC-TV18 Q: What have you made of the news from Advani overnight and do you think it is now raising the probability of a presidential-style face off between Modi and Rahul Gandhi in 2014?
A: For that to happen first of all Congress party has to join that race and I don't suspect they will because the two parties come from different vantage points and different kind of strength. But I think what it does is it brings some kind of a dramatic turn in a situation where that was developing in a certain direction and anyway. So instead of this developing inevitably towards a particular end, Mr. Advani has fast forwarded the process. More than that, I don’t see this having really long-term consequences.
The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) has taken a call. It is a risky call but they have taken a call to go with Narendra Modi and everybody knows Narendra Modi. His track record is not secret, his track record of governance as well as politics. So if he is going to be in-charge of the party then all the others are not going to matter that much, particularly people who are seen as the old-timer. So, I think that is the new equation, once BJP puts Modi in front the rest will be inevitable.

Q: From a financial market point of view and a limited market point of view some observers feel that this will make the contest quite so bipolar and divisive that the chances of one fraction either the United Progressive Alliance (UPA) or the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) getting close to a majority is actually quite high now, which is a desirable solution for the financial markets. Would you say that there is credence to that thought or it is too presumptuous?
A: Many polls have indicated that if it is a clear contest then this will increase the seats of both BJP and Congress party. I have always believed that for India to have real stability in its politics it is going to have coalition for a long time.
But for it to have real stability between the Congress and the BJP there must be atleast 300 seats, ideally 350 between the two of them.
However, 350 look like a far cry in today’s politics, so atleast 300 seats between them. So if Congress and BJP directly share the number of 300 then it is possible to build a stable coalition and it is possible to have a cohesive opposition. If you look at this Parliament, while the coalition has had its own problems the Opposition also has not shown any real cohesion.
If you look at Advani’s track record, he is a party elder, he is a senior statesman everybody is suppose to defer to him, but what has he been able to manage – there have been more parliamentary disruptions, entire sessions have been written off under his watch. We haven't seen that senior statesman act played by him at any point of time while all this has happened.
So, this party had become a mob of senior leaders which was out of Advani’s control, but they were quite happy to have him there as a figurehead who did not have any real power, but behind whom they could all hide and avoid having another leader.
I am sorry to say so, but a little bit of last emperor kind of figure. So, the leadership now has a more clear cut direction in the BJP. The Congress party never had a problem in any case. So, all of us, particularly political observers would welcome a clearer fight rather than what you would describe as a goalmouth melee.
_PAGEBREAK_ Q: It hasn't worked that easily in the past has it in terms of general elections, outcomes have not been so clear, in favour of one party or the other. The world we live in is necessarily a world where there are allies. How does Narendra Modi fit into the central politics scenario both in terms of whether they can cobble together some kind of strategic or strong combination for themselves?
A: In 2009, Congress and BJP together crossed the 300 mark. In 2004, they came close to crossing the 300 mark. So, it is not so bad. Yes, India’s politics is such now that you coalitions and you will continue to have coalitions and even if you look at these four and half years or four years plus of this coalition while coalition partners have gone out Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK) has gone out, Mamata Banerjee has gone out the government has never really been under a threat.
Infact in the government if there has been any policy paralysis it is because of disagreement and dissensions and backstabbing and the poisoning of each others lunch within the Congress party and there have been policy confusions within the Congress party.
So, I don’t think it is fair to blame coalition politics to much of this. So, coalition politics will continue. People have to find coalition partners and yes when the BJP puts Narendra Modi in front, they know that this has implications for their being able to find coalition partners. There is Nitish Kumar who has a serious problem with Muslim vote, there is Naveen Patnaik who has principled issues and even Nitish has principled issues, he is an old Lohiait. It is not easy for them to carry on with Modi’s kind of politics atleast by reputation and by track record, he has to prove them wrong.
At the same time, the BJP has to be honest and they have taken the honest call that they do not have a Vajpayee, they had only one Vajpayee, he wasn’t typically a BJP/ Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS) phenomenon. He was a leader of his own kind who rose a certain level, he was loved and liked by the BJP and RSS even when he disagreed with them or did not listened to them or chartered his own course.
He also had a wider appeal in the rest of the country BJP does not have a leader like that and Advani is not that leader because even when Mr. Vajpayee, when he was around Mr. Advani was the tough one, Mr. Vajpayee was a soft one that is how they combine.
So, now they put Modi in front, who is a tough one maybe they will find a soft one to be his Vajpayee, but sort of number two to him and then they can take a call if they get the numbers. So, BJP’s politics has taken a predictable turn. I will not call it an unpredictable turn, they were headed this way. It has its opportunities; it also has its complexities. It is for the BJP now to figure out what these complexities are and the Congress party has to respond to this because for the Congress now it is a more clear cut target. It is a more well defined target. They have a personality and they have an ideology to attack. So, it for either party now to go to the market place of coalition making with these ideas and see who they can get.
Now in many parties particularly those who have some hope of getting the Muslim vote or depend on the Muslim vote will find it tough to go with NDA led by Narendra Modi, where Narendra Modi is in front. At the same time there are many parties in the country for whom Congress is the only natural rival, so they can't go with Congress. So both have to now weigh these factors and use their skills.  Q: The question the financial markets were grappling with till last month though was how soon one could expect general elections. Given what has happened in the last parliamentary session, no consensus even on Food Security and what to do with that. Would you say it is still likely that elections happen much earlier than anticipated or do you think this has more or less set the track for the things to come through for the next year?
A: We had this conversation a couple of months back and I had then taken some time explaining the timeline. What is earlier? The latest elections can begin to take place in India, is first week of April next year because if parliament has to be constituted on the due date that is mid-May then we have five phase elections. At least five or six weeks ahead elections have to begin, plus another month before that code of conduct comes into being.
So really we are talking of a very narrow window now, governments in India fall in parliament session. Theoretically government can fall in monsoon session. Is it likely, looks tough. Today's odds are elections will take place at the expected time because no party really has a vested interest, no party that is supporting the coalition and bringing down this government, but even if it does it is a matter of two months this way or that because there is too little time left. So, I think that debate is a little bit theoretical. Yes, it is very tempting sometimes to think that let there be a quick election though because the system needs ganga snan of legitimacy of an election because too many people are not responding to the system.
For example, the bureaucracy is not responding to the system. Bureaucracy in India particularly in Delhi has a very good sense of change so you can see the bureaucracy has pulled shutters down over the past year or so. In some case it is open defiance of government of the day, in some cases there is the stalling on many things and there is too little time left for the government to get its authority back. It is trying. In some areas it is coming back, in some areas it is not coming back, but at the same time to think that somebody will order elections to end this stalemate is unrealistic. It doesn’t happen like that in India.