Mamata Banerjee’s Trinamool Congress (TMC) has announced its candidates on all the 42 seats of West Bengal ending any hopes of a united opposition (INDIA bloc) taking on the BJP in the state. The list includes “outsiders” and ex-BJP leaders thus self-neutralising some of the sharp attacks of Mamata against the BJP in the past, and providing an opening to the saffron party in the mother of all battles.
In TMC’s list announced at a massive rally in Kolkata, 16 MPs who won in 2019 have been repeated, while six have been replaced, resulting in a replacement ratio of 27 percent. BJP’s first list had a replacement ratio of 29 percent while Congress saw only 12 percent.
Bohiragoto Blunted
There are three outsiders (bohiragotos) in the list: Former cricketers Yusuf Pathan and Kirti Azad, and Bollywood star Shatrugan Sinha. While Kirti and Shatru have been BJP MPs in the past, and belong to neighbouring Bihar, Yusuf belongs to Gujarat and his family is believed to be fond of Prime Minister Narendra Modi.
Mamata had labelled BJP as outsiders and gained sympathy by igniting the Bengali asmita factor in a fierce battle in the 2021 state elections. “Remember, BJP is not a party of Bengal but it is a party of Delhi and Gujarat. They should return to those states. Don’t trust the BJP or believe them. If you want to fight elections in Bengal, do it without bringing outsiders.”
"TMC doesn't have enough candidates of its own? Shatrughan Sinha, Kirti Azad and Yusuf Pathan are Bohiragotos (outsiders). TMC didn’t find enough sons of the soil for the election,” targeted Amit Malviya in a social media post.
No INDIA bloc
TMC has ended any hopes of a INDIA bloc pact in the state. Yusuf Pathan has been fielded against Adhir Ranjan Chaudhary, Leader of the Congress in Lok Sabha and one of the key opponents of any truck with TMC in Congress.
Both parties have hit out at each other. While Congress accused TMC of sending a message to the PMO that it will not be fighting the BJP, TMC blamed Congress for not responding positively to its offer of two seats.
TMC recorded a vote share of 43.7 percent, BJP 40.6 percent, a lead of just 3 percentage points in 2019, while INC got 5.7 percent. BJP won 18, TMC 22 and INC 2 seats. A swing of 5 percent against the TMC and in favour of the BJP could lead to a loss of 12 seats for Mamata.
No alliance with Congress could prove to be detrimental to TMC as the minority population is very high in Bengal (27 percent). If Congress party’s charge of TMC having an understanding with the BJP sticks with even a very low population of minorities it could lead to loss of vote share of TMC and help the BJP.
TMC was earlier part of NDA and seems to be playing into its hands as a charge of a section of Congress. In 2019, 4.3 percent out of 5.7 percent of Congress vote share was accounted for by Muslim voters. If TMC had allied with Congress, BJP hypothetically could have lost 6 seats in 2024 due to their combined might. BJP needs to win at least 30 of the 42 seats to accomplish its Mission 370.
The proportion of the West Bengal electorate that does not identify with any party is very high at 68 percent. So, there is a chance that some minorities return to the Left+INC fold if it is able to create a perception that they are better placed to take on the BJP at the national level.
Advantage BJP
BJP hopes anti-incumbency against Mamata government, possible dent in women vote due to Sandeshkhali incident, and corruption charges against its MLAs/MPs could put pressure on TMC vote.
BJP smells an opportunity in Bengal as it attempts to expand its footprint in Eastern and Southern parts of India. PM Modi, its star campaigner, has already made four visits, including meeting with affected women of Sandeshkhali. BJP hopes to make a big dent in the women support base of Mamata, 44 percent backing TMC in 2019.
"Amid achievements, the entire country is watching the situation of Bengal today. The whole country is sad and angry after seeing what TMC, which beats the drum of Maa, Mati, and Manush, has done to the sisters of Sandeshkhali,” he said at a rally at Arambagh in Hooghly district.
In this grand finale, every seat counts. The bigger question is can Congress and Left who have been depleted in state polls not failing to win a single seat, who have not yet started seat sharing talks, make a dent in TMC and help the BJP?
Amitabh Tiwari is a former corporate and investment banker-turned political strategist and commentator. Twitter: @politicalbaaba. Views are personal, and do not represent the stance of this publication.
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