The last few days have been good for the Taliban. Russia extended legitimacy to them by becoming the first country to recognise them as the legitimate government of Afghanistan.
Few days later India declined to endorse a UN resolution on Afghanistan seeking political inclusion and urging Taliban to reverse its repressive policies resulting in the "grave, worsening, widespread and systematic oppression" of all women and girls.
And to think that there was a time that India and Russia had cooperated (together with Iran) to strengthen the Taliban's arch rival - the Northern Alliance in Afghanistan -against the Taliban. But that is now a matter of the past. Instead we see more and more countries cosying up to the Taliban, even if cautiously.
Russia reached out to Taliban even before it swept to power
Russia’s foreign ministry said that there were significant prospects in trade and economic ties, especially in the fields of energy, transport, agriculture and infrastructure. It further announced that it would continue to help Kabul strengthen regional security and continue the fight against terrorism and drug trafficking.
In turn the acting Afghan Foreign Minister Amir Khan Muttaqi said he hoped it would serve as an example to other countries, which have been reluctant to recognise a regime which implements a version of Sharia law along with severe restrictions on women and girls.
Russia's recognition of the Taliban should not come as a surprise because de facto Russia had long recognised that Taliban would be here to stay. To that effect, it had opened channels of communication with the group much before it swept into power in August 2021.
Three pillars undergird Moscow’s stance
Moscow's decision hinges on three main pillars: regional security; trade and connectivity; and geopolitics.
A retired Indian diplomat who had been privy to talks explained that Moscow's decision steamed mainly from the assessments it had made that the Taliban was the only force capable of countering the growing Islamic State Khorasan Province (ISIS-KP) threat in Afghanistan.
Russia's concerns go a long way back since the Afghan jihad, which had resulted in the dissolution of the erstwhile USSR, and sparked secessionist conflicts in its own Muslim majority provinces of Chechnya and Ingusheti. The Central Asian countries bordering Afghanistan are also part of Russia's sphere of influence and any spillover of terrorism and violence there was undesirable.
More recently, since the time of Russia's military intervention in the Syrian civil war has made it a target of the ISIS. The bombings in the Russian cinema hall Crocus last year was claimed by the ISIS-KP. Almost on a daily basis terror plots being filed are reported in the Russian media with the alleged culprits having allegiance or allied to the ISIS-KP.
In this regard, the Taliban, whose objective has always been only Afghanistan and not a worldwide caliphate, seemed to be the ones who could keep groups like the ISIS-KP at bay. It has stopped the Afghan civil war, brought violence largely under control since August 2021, and faces no real opposition to its rule there.
The US angle from Moscow’s perspective
Moreover, Moscow views the ISIS-KP as being US proxies, a belief that may just have gained traction with the recognition by the US of Ahmed al-Sharaa, Syria's acting President, and the delisting of his organisation the Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham - the branch of ISIS in Syria - from the list of proscribed terrorist organisations.
The Taliban, has also on numerous occasions reiterated that it would not allow any terrorist group on its territory or to target any third country from Afghan soil.
This is a prime reason, why, besides Russia, other countries like China, Iran, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan had all opened dialogue with the Taliban even earlier than 2021. This is also the reason why ties are warming between it and India.
In fact, China had accepted the credentials of Taliban's ambassador to Beijing a year ago. Representative offices of the Islamic Emirates of Afghanistan exist in many regional capitals, though not at the ambassadorial level.
Economic dimension to Russia-Taliban ties
Trade and connectivity are others factor driving Moscow's decision. Since the western sanctions on Russia for its Ukraine war, it has been looking for newer markets and trade routes to Asia. The routes through Af-Pak are the shortest though they are conflict ridden and lack of infrastructure. Connectivity is also a major driver of neighbouring countries deepening relations with Afghanistan to implement projects like the Trans-Afghan railways.
This is why Russia was the first country to sign an international economic deal with the Taliban in 2022, to supply oil, gas and wheat to Afghanistan. Such deals unofficially had already existed between the Taliban and countries like Turkmenistan.
On its part, the Taliban is also seeking investors and trade partners. The freeze by the UN of some $9 billion Afghan foreign reserves has added to its woes. At a recent event Haji Nooruddin Azizi, Minister of Trade and Industry of the current Taliban government, pitched for investments and businesses, underscoring that every facet of Afghanistan needed urgent global support.
Afghanistan is a resource-rich country, situated at the heart of the Eurasian landmass, a natural bridge between Central and South Asia. However, geopolitical instability and the uneasy security situation may be dissuading investors. Azizi underscored that his government was putting in great effort for transparency, fighting corruption, and reviewing laws to ease doing business and trade there.
If here, Russia can take the lead whether in Afghanistan's lucrative mining industry or building infrastructure, it would definitely shift the balance of power there in its favour. With India also establishing ties with the group, there is also opportunity for India and Russia to collaborate in Afghanistan.
Finally, geopolitically too Russia may feel the need to assert itself as it finds itself increasingly on the backfoot, whether in the Middle East or in the Southern Caucuses. On the other hand, Central Asian countries are rapidly forging trade and connectivity links with the Taliban, while whispers are circulating about the US discussing using the strategic Bagram airbase there. As relations with the West plummet, Russia as well as China and Iran would seek to counter any American presence there.
Much will depend on how Western powers will respond. The recent ICC warrant for the Taliban's supreme leader and the head of Afghanistan's Supreme Court, on charges of persecuting women and girls in the country, may be an indication. But one thing is sure. Russia's move will now pave the way for a more official recognition of the Taliban - at least in the region.
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