He is called the magician of Rajasthan politics, and is known for his organisational skills, and if the grapevine is to be believed, Rajasthan Chief Minister and veteran Congress leader Ashok Gehlot is now tipped to lead the grand old party. If elected, he will be the first non-Gandhi to head the Congress in 24 years.
Congress President Sonia Gandhi is keen to hand over the baton to someone else in view of her age (75 years) and health. She has been holding fort since May 2019 when her son Rahul Gandhi resigned from the post following a drubbing in the Lok Sabha elections.
This is her second term as President, and holds the record of being the longest-serving Congress President, having held the post for over 19 years in her first term from March 1998 to December 2017.
As Rahul Gandhi continues to be reluctant to return to head the grand old party, and is also adamant on installing a non-Gandhi to the top post, Sonia Gandhi has urged 71-year-old Gehlot to take over the reins of the party from her.
Two Birds
The Congress has to elect its new President by September 21. The Election Commission of India has also asked the party to complete its organisational polls as per the schedule.
Nominating Gehlot for party presidency is widely expected to benefit the Congress nationally, as well as in Rajasthan. Firstly, it will help the party negate, to a certain extent, the anti-incumbency against its government in the desert state and give a good fight to the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP). Rajasthan is known as a cyclic state as no incumbent government has retained power in decades now. Secondly, the move will help in countering the narrative of its opponents that the Congress is a ‘family run private limited’ party.
If Gehlot agrees, he will have to leave the Chief Minister's post for his young bete noire Sachin Pilot.
Track Record
Incumbency aside, the Congress has performed badly whenever Gehlot was at the helm. His record speaks for itself. In 1998, the Congress registered a landslide victory, winning 153 of the total 200 assembly seats in Rajasthan. Subsequently, Gehlot took over as Chief Minister for the first time. The following election, in 2003, under his leadership the Congress bagged 56 seats, a loss of 97 from 1998. In 2008, the Congress won 96 seats, and managed to form the government with Gehlot being sworn in as Chief Minister for the second time.
Again, under Gehlot the Congress fought the 2013 assembly polls and recorded its worst-ever performance in Rajasthan by securing just 21 seats. While the Congress came back to power in 2018 in the state, many attribute part of the credit to Pilot. The 2018 electoral victory was marred by the Gehlot-Pilot tussle for chief ministership.
Unhappy Pilot
A slighted Pilot revolted against Gehlot in July 2020 when he sequestered 18 legislators in a Gurugram resort. The calculation could have been that more Congress MLAs would join him, and then the BJP would chip in to install him as Chief Minister. But that didn't happen as Gehlot skilfully negotiated the rebellion to save his government. Pilot had to eat humble pie, and return to the Congress camp though the Gandhis assured him that his time would come. Forty-four-year-old Pilot has been patiently waiting.
Nationally, Gehlot's appointment will help the Congress in perception management by silencing the critics of the Gandhi family, though questions will be raised about him being a rubber stamp of the Gandhis.
Advantage Gehlot
That apart, Gehlot is an acceptable face within the party given his vast organisational experience. At the age of 34, Gehlot was picked by late Rajiv Gandhi to lead the party in Rajasthan. As general secretary in-charge of Gujarat in 2017, he along with Rahul Gandhi nearly snatched victory from the BJP in Gujarat, the home state of Prime Minister Narendra Modi.
His non-controversial image and stature could help the Congress in its revival bid, and also woo a sizeable chunk of people who are opposed to Modi and the BJP but unwilling to support Rahul Gandhi. It is too early to predict whether other opposition parties would rally behind him in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections.
For the Gandhis too, Gehlot is a loyalist who would have no qualms in keeping the seat warm for them.
Gandhis’ Shadow
It will be interesting to see how the G-23 or group of dissenters respond to this move, and whether this will prompt any rebel leader to throw their hat in the ring.
Many in the G-23 blame Rahul Gandhi for the confusion in the Congress, arguing that while he has consistently rejected appeals to return as the party President, he continues to run the show. All the decisions and appointments clearly have his stamp of approval.
This status quoist approach has resulted in the exit of many old and young leaders — Jaiveer Shergill being the latest — and also made it difficult for the party to stem the electoral slide set in 2014. In his resignation letter, Shergill questioned the leadership, and the decision-making process in the party.
Come September, the Congress is expected to address the leadership crisis. However, critics have put a question mark on the effectiveness of the new Congress President in the backdrop of Rahul Gandhi already being declared the face of the party's nationwide Bharat Jodo Yatra, which starts on September 7.
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