The June 22 meeting of a select few leaders from opposition parties has got the Richter scale of national politics ticking again. The meeting which was called by former Union minister Yashwant Sinha would not have been significant — after all, every now and then there is flashes of opposition unity — had it not been held at the New Delhi residence of Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) chief Sharad Pawar. It is Pawar’s presence at the Rashtra Manch which makes one sit up and take notice.
This is because if there is anyone who can bring together a feasible opposition against the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) ahead of the 2024 general elections, it is Pawar. The Maratha strongman was admitted in the hospital in April and from there in such short notice (and during a pandemic) if he has made it to Delhi to host a meeting, it must be an important one.
Talks about such grouping have taken place in the past as well and none have sustained the excitement generated. This could be a reason why none of the leaders who took part in the June 22 meeting have labelled it as an ‘opposition meeting’, or an anti-BJP meeting. It might also be a politically wise move to not invite the wrath of a powerful ruling party this early on.
This ambiguity in messaging and leaving enough room for plausible deniability has the Sharad Pawar's stamp all over it. These are deliberate gaps which have been left so that the meeting sends a message to those who would care to pay attention, and is ignored by the others. This is Pawar’s trademark.
But not many are fooled by the casual stance of both Pawar and other opposition leaders. Admittedly, not every opposition party was represented at this meeting, and conspicuous by its absence was the Congress, some of whose leaders including Rashtra Manch co-founder Shatrughan Sinha and Manish Tewari were absent from this meeting.
Like many others, Pawar is also convinced that it is not possible to win elections in India, or run coalition governments, without the support of either the BJP or the Congress. All coalition governments at the Centre, starting from VP Singh's government in the 1980s, have needed the support of either of the two national parties.
Moreover, in the current scenario a third front could only strengthen the BJP by cutting into the Congress’ vote bank. Hence, the ultimate attempt would be to weave the Congress into the coalition — and Pawar is the only person who can pull it off. It is another matter that there isn’t currently a leader in the Congress with whom he can talk about such a coalition.
Pawar’s personal fortunes are dependent upon the Congress for future success which is why his second meeting with political strategist Prashant Kishore in as many weeks raises eyebrows. The core strength of the NCP in the Maharashtra assembly is about an average of 55-odd seats out of a total 288 seats, and it has barely gone over the two-digit mark in the Lok Sabha, even when in an alliance with the Congress. After breaking away from the grand old party in 2014, it has become apparent to Pawar that the NCP is a sub-regional force confined to western Maharashtra, unable to beat even the Shiv Sena in numbers. His meeting with Kishore could be his way of nudging and pushing the Congress to come to the table and begin discussions on poll alliances for the future. It must be noted here that Kishore's singular failure so far has been with the Congress in Uttar Pradesh in 2017.
At the NCP’s anniversary on June 10, Pawar had made it clear that he did not wish the Congress to break from the Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA) alliance, which both the parties have with the Shiv Sena in Maharashtra. However, in view of Maharashtra Pradesh Congress chief Nana Patole's statement that the Congress would stay with the MVA only until the 2024 elections, Pawar said that the NCP and the Shiv Sena were willing to go to the polls together.
That instantly brought Patole a reprimand from Congress leadership. While that rap on the knuckles has compelled Patole to backtrack, it is also an indicator that the Congress is willing to be guided by Pawar and could be persuaded into a larger alliance with other regional parties.
In 2017, Pawar organised a morcha of opposition parties in Mumbai and could have been a potential unifier then. However, he was torn between the Congress and the BJP, with one faction urging him to join hands with the ruling party. However, despite brief flirtations with the BJP, Pawar believes that smaller parties have no future if in an alliance with the BJP, and while at present the Congress might be willing to acknowledge his bid to lead the coalition, no such future awaits him in the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA).
All put together, this attempt at forging an opposition alliance could be 80-year-old Sharad Pawar’s swan song. One can expect him to do his best to pull off the impossible.
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