Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s appeal remains undiminished across large swathes of India, but, with a score of 10 on 10 in the Lok Sabha polls, in Haryana, the Modi factor has acquired an aura of invincibility. Moreover, the Bharatiya Janata Party’s (BJP’s) first and second lists of candidates for the upcoming assembly polls reflect a carefully crafted tapestry of caste, youth, and community. Given Haryana’s stunning diversity of castes and sub-castes, non-Jats and Jats, and Punjabis and Banias, the saffron party has methodically apportioned its 90 candidates to fulfil the expectations of various social groups.
It has given tickets to at least 17 leaders from the Dalit community, which forms nearly one-fifth of the state’s population. In the 2014 elections, the Modi charm and the promise of ‘Ache Din’ and ‘Sabka Saath, Sabka Vikaas’ had won the party eight reserved seats. The BJP’s Dalit focus comes against the backdrop of the recent controversy over the demolition of a Ravidass temple in Delhi, in the wake of which violent protests had taken place across Punjab and Haryana. Though traditionally Congress supporters, a section of well-off Dalits have increasingly veered towards the BJP. Still, the saffron party is viewed with suspicion among a large, politically-conscious section who believe that the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS) and BJP symbolise and preserves the caste system. It is to dispel such notions that the BJP has allocated nearly one-fifth of 90 seats to Dalits.
However, it’s not just the Dalits that the BJP has to worry about. The Jats, a powerful community whose influence extends beyond its vote share of 29 per cent (25 per cent of the electorate), are numerically, one of the largest voting blocs in Haryana. In past elections, the BJP successfully used non-Jat polarisation to garner the votes of other communities such as Brahmins, Baniyas, Other Backward Classes (OBCs) and others.
However, to shed the tag of being a ‘non-Jat’ party, as well as to counter any possible Dalit disillusionment, this time the BJP has given tickets to a slew of Jat leaders such as Subhash Barala, Captain Abhimanyu and wrestling star Babita Phogat. In all, the party has given tickets to 21 Jat leaders including the nine who quit the Indian National Lok Dal (INLD).
In the last five years, 10 INLD MLAs hopped over to the BJP. This move by the BJP has rattled the Opposition and has made the fight for the Jat vote even more fragmented and the party hopes to benefit from it in the Jat-dominated districts of Rohtak, Jhajjar, Panipat among others in central Haryana.
In the last three elections, it was through the support of leaders such as Rao Inderjit Singh and Rao Narbir Singh, to name a couple, that the BJP was able to win big in the Ahirwal or Yadav stronghold of southern Haryana where Rao Inderjit Singh enjoys massive support. However now the party is struggling to keep dissension in check after it not giving tickets to Rao Narbir Singh, and supporters of Rao Inderjit Singh such as Vipul Goel among others.
Rao Inderjit Singh had joined the party after leaving the Congress in 2014 and retained his seat (Gurugram) in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections. Over the last five years, he has had more than once face-off with Chief Minister Manohar Lal Khattar. The BJP’s refusal to give tickets to his daughter (from Rewari) and other supporters has not gone down well with Singh —who is the descendant of 1857 freedom fighter Rao Tula Ram, and this could cost the party heavily in the south Haryana belt.
Besides those disappointed at family members not getting a party ticket, the BJP’s more serious concern is that of turncoats who have joined the party in the last five years and whose presence and influence has led to serious heartburn among its old timers. Similarly, resentment from the seven MLAs, including two ministers, who have been denied the ticket this time and have resigned from the party, could marginally affect the BJP’s performance in a few pockets. Its victory in 2014 assembly elections was due to the near complete support it received from Punjabi-speakers who dominate the string of towns along the Grand Trunk Road up to Sonepat. In these areas, the BJP has been able to retain near total control and is likely to build on it in the coming elections.
Besides its own formidable strength and the Modi factor, the BJP’s efforts to retain power are being aided most by a divided and lacklustre Opposition.
Valay Singh is a freelance journalist. Views expressed personal.
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