At the national level, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is getting stronger, and the Congress weaker. There is no end to the grand old party’s factionalism and problems. Even a section of its hard-core supporters is losing hope. This has created a space for an effective/credible opposition party, and a national alternative.
In many states, it is the regional parties that are putting up resistance against the BJP; however, their influence is limited to their respective states/regions. A few regional satraps such as Mulayam Singh, Lalu Prasad, Nitish Kumar have in the past attempted to expand nationally, but failed.
The truth is, most regional parties are not in the position to take over the mantle of the main opposition role, from the Congress.
The Aam Aadmi Party (AAP), which was formed out of a public movement against corruption during the Congress-led United Progressive Alliance (UPA) 2, is among the very few regional forces with the potential to occupy this position.
Bolstered by its success in Delhi in 2013, AAP made grand plans to make a big impact in the 2014 general elections. However, it failed miserably winning just four Lok Sabha seats. The party didn’t have the organisational machinery to contest on a pan-India level.
AAP committed tactical mistakes such as taking support from the Congress to form government in Delhi, and Arvind Kejriwal contesting against Narendra Modi in Varanasi instead of Rahul Gandhi in Amethi, thus restricting his bandwidth.
After these setbacks, AAP recalibrated its strategy to consolidate its position in Delhi, showcase its governance model, and make a targeted attempt in states where there is an opening.
AAP contested in smaller states such as Punjab, Goa, and Uttarakhand in 2017. The party emerged as the runner-up ahead of the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance in Punjab.
The assembly polls in Punjab next year could be a turning point in AAP’s political journey. It has announced it will also contest the elections in Uttar Pradesh, Himachal and Gujarat.
As per initial surveys AAP is in contention to form the government in Punjab, thanks to the public spat between Chief Minister Amarinder Singh and Congress Pradesh Committee Chief Navjot Singh Sidhu.
Uttarakhand faces a revolving door model with the BJP and the Congress taking turns to rule the state. In Goa, corruption is a big issue which AAP can bet on.
In all these states AAP hopes to make inroads among anti-BJP voters frustrated with the Congress’ inability to take on the saffron party.
If AAP wins Punjab, it will become the only regional party to have a government in two states. In the latter half of 2022, it could build on the momentum and test the waters in Himachal Pradesh and Gujarat.
The party has a successful governance track record in Delhi to exhibit. Unlike other regional parties, AAP is not rooted in any regional identity, and, thus, can expand its footprint beyond its home turf.
However, it’s not going to be easy as it has lost some support at the national level. Kejriwal’s nagging with the BJP in Delhi over jurisdiction, shunting inner-party competition, and compromising on ideology has dented AAP’s image as a party with a difference.
AAP needs to prepare a blueprint for expansion, and make a realistic goal of becoming a potent force by 2029. It needs to win a few states over the next few years, and implement its development agenda of bijli-sadak-paani to win back the trust of voters.
Initially, it should focus on small states, regions where the Congress is in direct contest with the BJP, and urban seats. It should maintain an equidistant approach, and, importantly, avoid being part of any united opposition.
As AAP starts winning small states and/or displacing the Congress, it would be able to attract talent from other parties, and bolster its organisational strength.
Slow but steady progress, being prepared for the long haul, and not chasing overnight success can help AAP take advantage of a weakening Congress, and occupy its space. Can it be second time lucky?
Amitabh Tiwari is a former corporate and investment banker-turned political strategist and commentator. Twitter: @politicalbaaba.
Views are personal and do not represent the stand of this publication.
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