Pakistan: Made and unmade by the Army, Imran Khan’s political avenues are closing fast on him

The PTI had limited initial success in general elections failing to win a single seat in 1997. Imran Khan won one seat in 2002. The 2008 election was boycotted. It was only from 2011 onwards, as Pakistan’s powerful military establishment and the higher judiciary’s distaste of the Nawaz & Shehbaz Sharif families intensified, that Imran Khan was seen as a possible option for “engineering” a new “King’s Party”  into power.

In the 2013 elections, PTI received over 7.5 million votes (16.9  percent), making it second in the number of votes and third in terms of seats won (35). Its prolonged sit-ins in 2014-15 had the blessings of Inter Services Intelligence (ISI) spy-masters, Lieutenant Generals Shuja Pasha and Zaheer-ul-Islam.

Rise And Fall

In the 2018 elections, the PTI came to power with 149 seats (out of 272) in the National Assembly, getting 16 million votes (31.8 percent of the votes polled). The Army’s “hybrid construct” had come into effect, with the declaration of results being made impervious to poll observers at the last minute. Electable feudals, mostly from south Punjab, were nudged to join PTI.

The PTI is now being dismantled the same way it was brought into power. After the May 9 incidents, these “electables” have been the first to quit PTI.

There has been talk of a ban on PTI. The Federal Government can do so, using Section 15 of the Political Parties Order, 2002 (PPO), if PTI is found to be “operating in a manner prejudicial to the sovereignty and integrity of Pakistan” or is “foreign aided”. A gazette notification has to be referred to the Supreme Court within 15 days. Under Sec 16 of the PPO, members of the banned party stand disqualified as legislators for the rest of their terms. They cannot contest elections for four years thereafter.

Fixing Imran Good And Proper

Imran Khan stands isolated but defiant, refusing to condemn the May 9 violence despite being nudged by his mentors in the higher Judiciary to do so. His personal charisma has not ebbed. Social media support remains high. New canards of alleged rape of detained women workers of PTI have been floated, to seek international sympathy.

However, the Shehbaz Sharif government is sparing no efforts to bring out his lies and past “U-turns”. Tellingly, Health Minister Qadir Patel has just revealed Imran’s medical report, prepared after his arrest on May 9, which showed dependence on regular cocaine intake and hinted at mental instability.

General Asim Munir, whom Imran has been publicly naming and shaming, is determined to “fix” him good and proper this time. Imran is likely to be tried in military courts for planning and instigating the May 9 incidents. He may be arrested at an appropriate moment thereafter, ruling out judicial relief. He would be disqualified from taking part in elections.

Another King’s Party?

Nevertheless, a view persists, that Imran’s narrative – challenging the military establishment’s dominance – will remain a strong factor, resonating among urban youth and the new middle class in the next elections, whenever these are held.

Meanwhile, a new faction of erstwhile PTI politicians is being encouraged to coalesce, under the umbrella of Jahangir Khan Tareen, sugar baron-cum-industrialist who was instrumental in bringing Imran to power in 2017-18 but fell out with him later.

This rump faction of PTI may not enjoy mass popularity but could serve as the new “King’s Party”. Apart from keeping the election results credible, it could be part of a “hung parliament”, along with other mainstream parties, the PML (N) and PPP, which the Army would be comfortable with, as long as Imran is kept out.

Rana Banerji is a former Special Secretary, Cabinet Secretariat. Views are personal and do not represent the stand of this publication.