The grand opposition meeting on June 23 of like-minded parties (largely UPA participants) and fence-sitters like AAP, TMC, SP and CPM is being touted as the 1977 moment when major forces joined hands to dislodge Indira Gandhi.
The meeting is significant as chiefs of 15 parties will be brainstorming to present a united/joint opposition against the BJP in Patna, the same city from where socialist Jayaprakash Narayan gave the Indira Hatao slogan against the tyrannical Emergency imposed by the then Congress government.
Congress and opposition parties are upbeat after Congress dealt a big blow to BJP in Karnataka. While state elections and national elections are different beasts, it is ironic that Congress party’s victory has come largely at the cost of regional party HD Deve Gowda’s JD(S). And now Congress will be sitting down to do business with other birds of the same feather.
Much Ado About Nothing
Most of the parties which are going to attend the meeting are already part of UPA. The Left parties have relevance in only one state, Kerala, where they are in direct contest with Congress and hence opposition unity is not possible there.
Four states representing 142 seats in Uttar Pradesh, West Bengal, Delhi and Punjab (26 percent of Lok Sabha strength) are tricky as the three regional forces there are not ready to accept Congress party’s claim to lead this alliance.
Parties of three states (Andhra, Odisha, Telangana), representing 63 seats (12 percent of house strength), will be missing. YSRCP and BJD wish to maintain their equidistant approach, TDP is lining up to join the NDA, and BRS is locked in a triangular fight with Congress and BJP in Telangana.
Many Cogs In Unity Wheel
The Congress party has pan-India presence and a decent vote share across states. Even in the Hindi heartland states where it is comparatively weak, it has anywhere between 5-10% support. So any regional party which ties up with Congress has access to this support base. Even in UP and Bengal, Congress adds value to SP and TMC respectively, as it has pockets of influence, by region and caste/community wise.
On the other hand, most regional parties are limited to the boundaries of their state. Parties like TMC, BRS, BJD, SP, TDP, YSRCP, NCP, RJD, DMK, Shiv Sena and JD(U) got almost their entire vote share from their home state in 2019. Only BSP, AAP and CPM have reasonable vote share in more than one state. AAP and CPM get bulk of their votes from two states Delhi-Punjab and Kerala-West Bengal only.
When Congress ties up with a regional party which is confined to one or maximum two states, both benefit. Tie ups of Congress with regional parties do not benefit the grand old party outside the home state of regional parties. In states where there is a direct contest between the Congress and BJP like Rajasthan, MP, Chhattisgarh, Gujarat, Himachal, Uttarakhand or Northeast etc, these alliances do not help.
However, regional parties expect Congress, which is the junior partner in states like UP, Bengal, Bihar, to make sacrifices and contest a fewer number of seats or leave the battlefield here to regional parties. This puts Congress at risk of a permanent transfer/loss of votes like it had happened in UP when Congress sealed a pre-poll alliance with BSP and never recovered its Dalit base.
Not only this, TMC and AAP may also make outrageous demands for seats from Congress in Northeast, Goa and Gujarat, respectively, based on their recent assembly election performance and even in Delhi, despite Congress piping AAP in 2014 and 2019.
Why Regional Must Cede To National
To be seen as a credible national challenger to BJP, Congress has to have a bigger presence in the race in UP, Bengal, Bihar, Tamil Nadu and Maharashtra. Congress contesting too few seats in each of these states doesn’t help the grand opposition’s cause as it exposes chinks in the alliance leader’s (grand old party’s) armour. Under this arrangement, Congress may be sacrificing more than it gains.
On the other hand, for a sound and strong opposition plan, it is the regional parties which need to cede space to Congress in their backyard in line with its national stature. If both the regional parties and Congress contest separately, it would lead to a split in opposition vote helping the BJP and spoiling their chances.
Absence of opposition unity may not spoil Congress party’s chances in its head-to-head contests with the BJP, as evident from the table above. The regional parties need the Congress more than the Congress needs them. Not inducting Congress in Mahagathbandhan in UP cost SP-BSP-RLD alliance 8 seats in 2019. If TMC would have tied up with Congress in Bengal, BJP would have lost six more seats in 2019.
Hence, regional parties should be sacrificing a lot more instead of asking the grand old party to do so.
Amitabh Tiwari is a former corporate and investment banker-turned political strategist and commentator. Twitter: @politicalbaaba. Views are personal, and do not represent the stand of this publication.
Discover the latest Business News, Sensex, and Nifty updates. Obtain Personal Finance insights, tax queries, and expert opinions on Moneycontrol or download the Moneycontrol App to stay updated!
