Much water has flown under the bridge since BJP's debacle in Maharashtra in the recent Lok Sabha polls. The Dalit-Muslim combine as well as the Maratha voters formed a formidable alliance which ended up hurting the BJP-led Mahayuti in the state.
The opposition, led by a Congress-driven effort, centered its campaign on accusing the BJP of attempting to change the Constitution. The Maha Vikas Aghadi is still trying to make "save the Constitution" a poll issue.
But after the Haryana results, all theories on the post-Lok Sabha poll voters have been put to rest. The Dalits voted for the BJP which helped the party script a historic victory in the state.
Now, the BJP is cautiously aligning with smaller parties in different parts of Maharashtra to ensure that a Dalit-Muslim-Maratha combine doesn’t go entirely to the MVA.
There is a famous Hindi saying “kath ki handi baar baar nahi chadhti”. This is what BJP's campaign has been focussing on.
Yogi Adityanath’s “Batenge to Katenge” refrain has set off the polarisation debate in the state. Not to mention, Congress President Mallikarjun Kharge's personal remarks on Yogi’s "gerua" clothes have proved that this statement has made a visible impact. The narrative has changed.
Dalit-Muslim-Maratha combine no longer intact
Prime Minister Narendra Modi is not going all out doing rallies and road shows yet. Instead, he is focussing on holding rallies at places where the party needs him to galvanise the cadres and voters.
Meanwhile, Maratha leader Manoj Jarange, who made life difficult for the BJP during Lok Sabha polls, has announced that he will not field any candidate in the assembly polls. This may be an attempt to prevent a split of Maratha votes which could help the NCP led by Sharad Pawar.
NCP chief Ajit Pawar, while part of the Mahayuti alliance, is keeping a strategic distance from the BJP leadership on campaign issues. This distancing is seen as an effort to win over Maratha and Muslim voters in Western Maharashtra and Marathwada.
The BJP, meanwhile, is allowing him to navigate the campaign on his own, as the "Ajit Pawar factor" had previously caused friction, with their leaders struggling to justify the alliance to both voters and party cadres. Additionally, efforts are being made to shift the narrative, painting Sharad Pawar, not Ajit Pawar, as the primary figure behind corruption within the NCP.
Multi-cornered contest confusing voters
More than 4,000 candidates representing 12 political parties will be in the fray for the 288 assembly seats in Maharashtra for the November 20 election.
In earlier polls, there used to be only four prominent parties. Two big parties, Shiv Sena and NCP, have now been split into two. Plus, there are at least half a dozen smaller parties this time who have made their presence felt in some pockets of the state.
Moreover, many leaders who were expecting tickets failed to secure candidature due to complex alliance compulsions. Thus, there are many dissident candidates who are also contesting polls as Independents even as top leaders from both Mahayuti and MVA are trying to pacify them.
There are as many as 120 assembly seats witnessing a multi-cornered contest in the November 20 polls.
On many seats, there are triangular, quadrangular, and even pentagonal contests.
Advantage BJP-led Mahayuti
Political analysts believe this is the most challenging election the state has faced to date, with no single issue dominating the campaign, unlike in the Lok Sabha polls.
The voters' silence is deafening, as the sheer number of candidates in the fray has left many confused.
In addition to the major alliances of the MVA and Mahayuti, a third front, Parivartan Maha Shakti, is contesting over 110 seats.
However, there is little clarity about whom this alliance truly represents or which party it will ultimately benefit.
A multi-cornered contest, however, is likely to work in favor of the BJP.
The Congress is contesting over 102 seats, but if the Shiv Sena (UBT) and Sharad Pawar’s NCP faction fail to secure a significant number of victories, the Congress will be hard-pressed to maintain a 100 percent strike rate.
In Vidarbha, the NCP (Sharad Pawar faction) and Shiv Sena (UBT) are contesting 23 seats. However, it's evident that neither party has a strong voter base or formidable candidates in the region, which has traditionally been a Congress stronghold.
Given this scenario, BJP strategists are confident that despite caste-based voting patterns, the party will win the majority of seats contested by Shiv Sena (UBT) and NCP (SP) in the region.
Farmer issues
Farmers' apathy was one of the reasons behind BJP's poor show in Maharashtra in the Lok Sabha polls with the opposition successfully creating a narrative that the saffron party failed to take any decisions for the cultivators.
Post-Lok Sabha polls, the Centre as well the state government led by Eknath Shinde read the writing on the wall and took several pro-farmer decisions, including offering high Minimum Support Price (MSP) for onion, cotton and soyabean.
The opposition claims that unseasonal rains have wreaked havoc on soybean crops, causing up to 60% damage. However, the government has responded swiftly to mitigate the impact on farmers.
In addition, onion exports have been permitted, with the BJP leadership now confident that any anti-farmer narrative will not gain traction this time.
Game-changer scheme
Following the success of Madhya Pradesh, the Maharashtra government introduced the Ladli Behna scheme after the Lok Sabha polls, providing direct financial transfers into the accounts of girls.
The scheme fostered a sense of self-respect and empowerment among rural women.
In Madhya Pradesh, the initiative proved to be a game changer for BJP, and had a similar impact in Chhattisgarh.
BJP campaign managers are now heavily focusing on this scheme to secure votes from one of PM Modi’s key voter bases: women, often referred to as his "silent supporters."
Learnings from Lok Sabha debacle
The BJP switched gears immediately after the Lok Sabha elections in Maharashtra.
The successful duo of Union ministers Bhupendra Yadav and Ashwini Vaishnav were sent to Maharashtra after pulling off a near impossible victory in Madhya Pradesh in 2023.
Yadav and Vaishnav immediately stationed themselves at Mumbai in the run up to the polls.
The immediate task before them was to boost the morale of disheartened workers.
The "Ajit Pawar factor" posed challenges for the BJP during the Lok Sabha campaign, as party cadres struggled to justify their stance on corruption.
Additionally, a lack of coordination between the central and state units hampered efforts.
However, with Bhupendra Yadav and Ashwini Yadav stepping in, the party's leadership became more accessible to workers, addressing their concerns and grievances.
Even the previously low-profile Sangh cadres were mobilised to support the BJP campaign.
The issues that once hurt the BJP's prospects have been successfully addressed by the senior leaders.
Now, with party cadres energised and confidence building among voters, support for the "double engine" government led by PM Modi is on the rise.
The stage is now set for another battle royale between Mahayuti and MVA, as the voters with silent voters expected to make their voices heard by November 20.
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