Things are gradually turning against the current arrangement of President’s Rule in Manipur, imposed in February after the resignation of then chief minister Biren Singh. The recent development of 10 NDA legislators meeting the state governor Ajay Kumar Bhalla claiming the support of 44 legislators in an assembly of 60 — this list of supporters excludes 10 Kuki-Zo and 5 Congress legislators — is an indication that there is growing unrest among legislators regarding the current arrangement.
Power of Meitei civil society groups
The attempt to form a government by the NDA legislators comes after fresh protests by the valley-based Meiteis against the governor, chief secretary PK Singh, DGP Rajiv Kumar and state security advisor Kuldiep Singh. Already, there have been pressures exerted by the Meitei civil society groups on the legislators to form a popular government.
This strategy of the legislators seems to be driven by the pressure exerted by the Meitei groups to form a government, despite knowing that the results are unlikely to be fruitful. The reason is that there has been no unanimity on the choice of chief minister due to rampant factionalism within the BJP, the largest NDA constituent.
Among the NDA legislators, BJP legislators like Thokchom Radheshyam, P Brojen Singh and Kwairakpam Raghumani are known to be from the anti-Biren camp within the saffron party. Importantly, BJP legislator L Susindro Meitei, a legislator belonging to the Biren camp, according to The Indian Express, claimed to be unaware of the political development suggesting that the anti-Biren camp is behind the move to gain the sympathy of the Meiteis amid the fresh protests.
Backstory of the current round of protests
The Meitei civil society groups like Coordinating Committee on Manipur Integrity (COCOMI) are currently leading protests in the valley protesting against the removal of ‘Manipur’ signage from the state-owned bus ferrying journalists to the Shirui Lily festival by the security forces in Gwaltabi area. COCOMI has viewed this as an attack on the state’s territorial integrity.
It has to be mentioned that the Northeastern state of Manipur held its five-day Shirui Lily Festival — after a hiatus of two years — in the Ukhrul district in a hope to revive the state’s tourism, badly hit by the ethnic violence between Meiteis and Kuki-Zo people. This festival coincides with the blooming of the Shirui Lily, a rare flower found in the Shirui hills of the Ukhrul district, home to the Tangkhul Nagas. The purpose of the festival was to serve as the platform of unity amid turbulent times but despite efforts, signs of the existing divide did emerge during the festival although it ended peacefully showcasing the state’s rich cultural heritage.
These developments reiterate the fact that the state's present crisis can't be solved only through security measures as it is not only a law and order problem. True that there have been strong actions against the insurgents since the state was brought under President’s Rule. There have been arrests of over 350 insurgents in the last three months, along with the recoveries of arms and ammunition, although there has been dissatisfaction in the valley as there are allegations that strong actions are missing against the Kuki-Zo insurgents based in the hills.
President’s Rule hasn’t yet restored a modicum of trust
All these suggest that the steps taken during the President’s Rule have failed to win the trust of the people, particularly the Meiteis. Importantly, President’s Rule has failed to reduce the existing deep divide between the Meiteis and Kuki-Zo people. Since the start of the violence, which took over 250 lives and left over 60,000 people homeless, Meiteis and Kuki-Zo people haven’t been venturing into areas of each other’s dominance. There was a 51-member peace committee formed by the Centre in 2023 under then governor Anusuiya Uikey to lessen the gap but that committee failed to take off due to ethnic differences. Later, the Centre, surprisingly, took no efforts to revive the peace committee. Recently a peace meeting was held in April where representatives of both communities were present, though the prominent Meitei organisation COCOMI didn’t join it and criticised it as “stage-managed” by the union home ministry.
A government that doesn’t embrace inclusiveness will fail
This shows that only initiating a peace process isn’t enough; it needs to be inclusive, going beyond tokenism. Importantly, this can’t be done without local political support. Presently, there is a political vacuum. The recent political attempts to form a new government excluding the Kuki-Zo legislators isn’t a move towards a solution as this attempt is likely to only exacerbate the Kuki-Zo community’s demand for a separate administration. The new government should be an inclusive one having a chief minister capable of taking every community along at this crucial juncture.
The ball is now in the court of the BJP-led central government. It has to take the call as the state can’t be under President’s Rule for a long time, with dissent being visible in the valley against the present arrangement. If a popular government formation is not possible in the current situation, it also has the option of fresh elections to make way for a new government.
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