One of the key problems of any incumbent party in India, in the states or at the Centre, is anti-incumbency. No matter how big or organised the party is, anti-incumbency is unavoidable. It is a problem for the BJP at the Centre and equally for Mamata Banerjee in West Bengal.
It is nearly one and half decades since her party Trinamool Congress (TMC) stormed to power in West Bengal and the anti-incumbency is severe this time. As TMC faces a seven-phase polling from April 19 in Bengal, the anti-incumbency against the TMC is surely keeping the main opposition the BJP ahead in the race in the state.
Mounting Anti-Incumbency Hurting TMC
It is not wise to guess the number of seats out of 42 that BJP may get in a fiercely competitive state, two-and-a-half months before the declaration of results. In 2019, BJP got 18 seats with 40 percent votes and TMC 22 with 43 percent votes. The grievances against the TMC are not based on macro-level corruption as BJP often reads it. But the problem is at the micro level.
Owing to a lacklustre formal economy, the dependence on local political parties and their representatives at the grassroots is huge. People’s grievances are against those representatives who ask for more to facilitate certain public or private benefits – from accessing various government schemes, admission in a city hospital, to suppressing local objections to ensure a clearance, to a chosen few who get to set up a Kali temple or a cigarette shop on the public pavements. Parties cannot control local satraps as they play a significant role in ensuring victory in polls. TMC also is incapable of controlling this multi-headed monster.
But people’s grievances keep mounting. The only time in five years when they get an opportunity to express their displeasure is in the Lok Sabha polls – to teach TMC a lesson. A reason why the percentage of votes for the opposition BJP escalates in the national poll. The grievances – both in the urban and the rural areas – against TMC’s local leaders (and not necessarily against Mamata Banerjee) is very high.
If BJP can mix its strategy targeting both the local satraps and the top management, it would yield results. It is unlikely that TMC’s main instrument to influence voters – 67 welfare schemes – will cut any ice in the Lok Sabha. It may win the state Assembly poll as BJP is yet to familiarise itself as a ‘Bengali party’ to win the local Assembly.
Poor Candidate Selection
The party leaders and cadres are also confused about TMC’s selection of candidates in at least 10 seats. In these seats, the candidates are either rank outsiders or not known faces that matter enough to bag the nomination. Actress Rachna Banerjee in Hooghly’s Arambagh where BJP’s incumbent Locket Chatterjee was on sticky wicket is one example. Sharmila Sarkar, a doctor, in Burdwan East is yet to launch her career as a politician and so is Kalipada Soren, a Sahitya Academy awardee, in Jhargram.
Even among the Muslims – which is not unusual in Lok Sabha polls – the grievances are high. A section of Muslims of TMC has already publicly rebelled in at least two seats, Malda South and Baharampur of Murshidabad. In Malda South, TMC nominated Shahnawaz Ali Raihan who has spent his time mostly outside Bengal was pushed by one faction of the TMC and thus the rest of the factions have rebelled. The seat has well over 50 percent Muslim votes.
Read: General election to be held in 7 phases from April 19 to June 1
So is Baharampur where Congress’ Adhir Ranjan Chowdhury is winning from 1999, and TMC has fielded cricketer Yusuf Pathan to possibly split the Muslim vote. Very little is known why Banerjee fielded cricketer Kirti Azad or a former police officer (Prasun Banerjee) in middle Bengal seats.
While it can be argued that winners of the last two national polls had to be replaced in many seats to counter anti-incumbency, TMC’s failure to nominate consensus candidates in districts is expected to benefit BJP.
BJP Poised To Benefit
In this context, BJP should be able to increase its tally from 18, if they manage to deal with their issues. The key issue for the BJP is its factionalism: A reason why it has failed to declare 23 candidates so far.
They are facing severe challenges even in seats which were pre-decided by top management in Delhi, like Darjeeling where the party decided to field India’s former Foreign Secretary Harsh Vardhan Shringla. Neither the incumbent Raju Bista nor the local leaders are ready to accept Shringla, who is stationed in the constituency.
There are acute differences about candidates in at least a dozen seats including that of the former state president Dilip Ghosh and the nearly guaranteed seats dominated by the Scheduled Caste (SC) community like Namashudras, the second highest sub-group among the SCs in Bengal, who were expected to benefit from implementation of the Citizenship Amendment Act (CAA), 2019.
At this point the community is raising questions about CAA, which is not good news for the BJP as in the last Lok Sabha the Namashudras voted overwhelmingly for the BJP. Reasonable selection of candidates and an elaborate campaign led by Narendra Modi can definitely ensure more than fifty percent seats for the BJP in Bengal.
Suvojit Bagchi is a Kolkata-based journalist who previously worked with Ananda Bazar Patrika, BBC World Service and The Hindu. Views are personal, and do not represent the stand of this publication.
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