As Bharatiya Janata Party forms new alliance or is in search for newer alliances it draws attention to two things. First, BJP seems not sure of its victory and is desperately searching for new alliance partners before the 2024 Lok Sabha elections. There is another narrative, BJP is confident of its victory in 2024, but its search for new alliance is mainly to achieve the target of 370 seats for the party and to take the tally of National Democratic Alliance (NDA) beyond 400 seats.
Let’s examine what seems to a reasonable explanation for BJP’s search of new alliance partners. Looking at the electoral strength of the BJP and its expanded support bases, I think there is no uncertainty about BJP’s win in the 2024 elections, its search for new alliance is to establish an absolute dominance in Indian politics after the general elections and to at least marginalize the opposition if not make a ‘Congress mukt Bharat’.
Strengthening NDA
Two months ago the NDA seemed a little weaker with possibility of BJP facing a likely challenge in few states like Bihar, UP, Odisha, Andhra Pradesh, Maharashtra and some other states as the party either had no alliance or a weak alliance partner in these states. But even before BJP was able to rope in new alliance partners into the NDA fold, it still seemed well ahead of the nearest rival -- the Congress. The BJP with 37.8% votes in 2019 enjoyed much wider support base compared to the Congress which polled only 19.6% votes in 2019. Not only that, the BJP has polled more than 50% votes in 224 constituencies where it registered a big victory mostly contesting against the Congress in North Indian states. It is perfectly alright to assume that the support base of the two parties may have underwent significant change since 2019 and it may be wrong to use 2019 result as the benchmark for any assessment before the elections. But several assembly elections held since 2019 indicate that the BJP continues to enjoy its dominance, retaining power in many states defying anti-incumbency, while Congress failed to put up a challenge to the BJP and kept losing in different states.
Congress Waning in Hindi Heartland
Congress’s defeat in the recent round of assembly election in Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh is a testimony of Congress’s inability to challenge BJP in Hindi heartland states. The Congress managed to win elections in three states; Karnataka and Himachal Pradesh defeating the BJP and in Telangana where it defeated its main rival the Bhartiya Rashtriya Samiti (BRS). These results make me believe that even before the BJP went on an alliance hunt, the divided INDIA alliance was no match to the electoral strength of the BJP and the NDA. In my opinion even before BJP had roped in new alliances, it was well ahead in the electoral race on 2024.
Since, in my opinion, the BJP and NDA seemed stronger compared to the INDIA alliance even with fewer partners, I go along with the argument that the BJP’s efforts of roping in new alliance is with the aim of maximizing electoral strength to try and reach closer to the target set by Prime Minister Narendra Modi abki Baar BJP 370 Paar and NDA 400 paar. Let’s not misread BJP’s massive outreach program of roping in new alliances to its nervousness of losing election, it’s only directed towards, marginalizing the opposition to the maximum extent possible.
Mission 400 Possible?
Political development during last the two months has resulted in NDA gaining electoral strength day-by-day as it managed to form alliance with many regional parties, being able to bring back to NDA’s fold some of its old allies and by roping in some parties. During the last couple of months, the BJP has been able to form alliance with Janata Dal United in Bihar, Telugu Desham Party (TDP) and Jana Sena in Andhra Pradesh, Rahstriya Lok Dal (RLD) in UP, Pattali Makal Katchi (PMK) and Amma Makhal Munnethra Kachagam (AMMK) in Tamil Nadu, Maharashtra Nav Nirma Sena (MNS) of Raj Thackeray in Maharashtra. The BJP is still in talks with its erstwhile ally Akali Dal in Punjab. The expansion of the NDA would mean the alliance moving closer to their target of 400, but I am not sure it can be achieved, it’s almost impossible.
Sanjay Kumar is a Professor at Centre for the Study of Developing Societies (CSDS). He is also a Political Analyst. Views are personal, and do not represent the stand of this publication.
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