Pakistan and Saudi Arabia recently inked a ‘Strategic Mutual Defence Agreement’, which will have an impact on India’s equation with both countries, as well as on the dynamics in West Asia. On a broader level, this move seems to align with China’s ambitions in the region, while simultaneously complicating the US’ dealings in West Asia. The agreement effectively creates a formal military alliance between Riyadh and Islamabad, since it states that an attack on either of the two countries is an attack on both.
‘Why now?’ is a question that is only a natural response. The answer seems to be a product of the internal dynamics in West Asia characterised by volatility and tensions between states, and the crisis of confidence in the US that has being going on for quite some time.
US’ hollow security guarantee is catalysing realignment
For over a decade now, the US’ role as a security guarantor in West Asia has been dimnishing. Its chaotic exit from Afghanistan in 2021, its limited response to the 2019 Abqaiq-Khurais Attack on Saudi oil facilities, and the shift away from focusing on West Asia have all led Riyadh to believe that the whims and shifting priorities of Washington cannot determine its security.
For Pakistan, tensions with India and chronic economic instability make the deal with Saudi Arabia an opportune agreement. A formal treaty with Saudi Arabia may even bring an injection of financial support and preferential oil supplies at a time when Pakistan really needs it. However, the agreement will have an impact on both Iran and India– the two countries with clear rivalries in the mix, as well as on the dynamics in the Gulf as a whole.
India’s dilemmas
Months after the terrorist attacks in Pahalgam and clashes between India and Pakistan following Operation Sindoor, the calculus for India has shifted considerably. While the mutual defence agreement is phrased to be a defensive response to threats to the sovereignty of either country, what constitutes aggression is now an important question.
In an event where the tensions between India and Pakistan culminate, Saudi Arabia could support Pakistan, be it diplomatically, financially or even militarily. India would now have to make decisions based on the potential increased costs of engaging in military conflict with Pakistan.
This also has a bearing on India’s ties with Saudi Arabia. However, India is unlikely to cut down on trade with Saudi Arabia given the depth of Saudi investments in India’s economy. Saudi Arabia has pledged a 100 billion dollar investment in India through sectors like renewable energy and petroleum, and also imports between 16-20% of its crude oil from the country. The 2.7 million-strong Indian diaspora residing in Saudi Arabia also ensures that despite any tensions, India’s extent of dependence on Saudi Arabia will not translate into a reduction in engagement between the countries.
A nuclear power enters West Asia’s security calculus
Then there is the nuclear elephant in the room. For years, people have speculated about Saudi Arabia potentially being under Pakistan’s ‘nuclear umbrella’. While there have been no official statements that state that Pakistan’s nuclear arsenal could now be utilised defensively by Saudi Arabia, media reports say that, legally, that could well be in the realm of possibility.
Security doctrines in the region now have a new concern to account for, as Saudi Arabia has made a move to considerably bolster its deterrence capabilities. The weight of Pakistan’s military abilities behind Riyadh’s ambitions in the region, can empower Saudi Arabia to pursue its regional objectives with more aggression.
Israel and Iran won’t remain unaffected
It would not be baseless if Iran perceived itself to be at the receiving end of some of those regional objectives, considering the history of animosity between the two countries. While China did broker a detente between Saudi Arabia and Iran in 2023, the added military heft behind Saudi Arabia’s actions could spur Iran to focus more on its own military programs.
Iran also has a complex history with Pakistan that oscillated between periods of close cooperation and bubbling tensions. The relationship hit a nadir in 2024, when Iran struck Balochistan, targeting what it claimed were terrorist bases in an unprecedented escalation. Since then, both countries have proactively tried to rebuild the relationship, especially since they are important economic and security partners. Given their 900-kilometre border, the two countries have shared security interests, but Pakistan’s commitment to Riyadh is likely to cause some shockwaves in Tehran.
For Israel, the Mutual Defence Agreement is likely to have both pros and cons. On one hand, Iran has been a common adversary for both Israel and Saudi Arabia, and a significantly more muscular Saudi Arabia can serve as a counterweight to Iran. However, the potential entry of a nuclear power into the dynamics in the Gulf will force Israel to evaluate the possibility of Pakistani retaliation to any actions that involve Saudi Arabia. Similarly, for the UAE, the other economic force to be reckoned with in West Asia, the deal is likely to be seen as an assertion of Saudi strategic power.
Brace for volatility
For the US, the Mutual Defence Agreement is another indicator that it has less footing in West Asia than it did historically. Simultaneously for their Asian rival China this could be better received, since China’s ally Pakistan’s status in West Asia will be significantly more powerful, while parallelly countering US influence.
The Pakistan-Saudi defence agreement solidifies a new strategic reality. It raises the stakes for both India and Iran, and may prompt several countries in West Asia to recalibrate their doctrines. While the pact has been designed for deterrence, it may usher in a new volatile reality in West Asia. The agreement could well be a form of signalling, and not necessarily have such drastic implications. However, the fact that the terms of the agreement are not public makes worst case scenarios possibilities.
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