Karnataka Chief Minister Basavaraj Bommai is finding himself in an unenviable situation. He is the incumbent CM and captain who should be leading the party in the forthcoming assembly elections. But the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) high command has brought the retired captain back as head coach and placed him above the captain. The former was removed as captain owing to age and non-performance, just two years ago. Instead of the captain, the head coach is now the most sought-after man, and the captain is being forced to play second fiddle. This cricket analogy best explains Bommai's and BS Yediyurappa’s role in the Karnataka assembly elections, which BJP can’t afford to lose.
Bommai’s Troubled Tenure
Bommai has credentials and pedigree. But he became the CM under strange circumstances. When shown the door, BSY flexed muscles by playing the Lingayat card. The BJP high command chose another Lingayat, Bommai, as his successor to placate the angry Lingayat community, which is the backbone of the saffron party in Karnataka.
Bommai’s rule has been anything but impressive. Since his first day in office, he has been fighting both internal and external battles to save his chair and the government.
A sulking BSY who is moving earth and heaven to promote his son BY Vijayendra, BJP senior leaders, and the RSS, which still suspects his loyalties because of a Janata Parivar background, have all added to Bommai’s misery.
Yediyurappa’s Long Shadow
According to his close aides, Bommai is a victim of BSY’s corrupt legacy. Having inherited a completely discredited administration, Bommai is paying for his predecessor’s sins, they argue. But the BJP top bosses are in a Catch-22 situation.
They can’t ignore BSY because of his mass appeal and his hold over the Lingayat vote bank. Yet giving more importance to him undermines Bommai’s authority. But then, all is fair in an election.
Bommai and BSY have campaigned together across the state for two months but the response wasn’t encouraging. While travelling the length and breadth of Karnataka to salvage his government, the shrewd, calculative, and politically suave Bommai knows even if BJP wins, he may not continue as the chief minister.
“He is a practical man. He knows his limitations. He is the chief minister now. His father late SR Bommai was also the CM. He has seen enough power. He is grateful to the BJP high command for making him the CM and he will step aside when and if they wish to replace him with someone else”, said a close confidante of Bommai.
Lingayat Discontent
The findings of internal pre-poll surveys commissioned by the BJP are not encouraging, but Bommai is unfazed. He still maintains that BJP will return to power. Strong anti-incumbency, allegations of massive corruption, and changing caste dynamics seem to be working against him, making his task daunting.
On the other hand, BSY has declared retirement from electoral politics, paving the way for his ambitious youngest son Vijayendra. BSY asserts that BJP will return to power, and he will campaign aggressively. But some feel that winning the state back single-handedly is beyond him and BSY is no longer the satrap, he used to be.
All eyes are on the Panchamasali, the single largest sub-caste among the Lingayats, who have been threatening to defeat the BJP over reservation benefits and its ratio. They are thickly concentrated across the Mumbai-Karnataka region (now renamed as Kittur Karnataka), the stronghold of BJP and BSY. The sub-caste politics of the Lingayats can turn out to be dangerous for the BJP.
With their most popular pan-Karnataka face Siddaramaiah, the main opposition party, Congress, is marching towards Vidhana Soudha in Bengaluru with renewed vigour and confidence. The BJP strategists hope the JD(S) of the Gowdas will halt the march of Congress by giving it a good fight in the Old Mysore region, where BJP is the third pole.
Above all, the BJP and Bommai have placed their bets on Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s popularity and Union Home Minister Amit Shah’s manoeuvring and election management skills. Win or lose, both Bommai and BSY have already secured a place for themselves in the history of Karnataka.
DP Satish is Group Editorial Advisor - South, Network 18. Views are personal and do not represent the stand of this publication.
Discover the latest Business News, Sensex, and Nifty updates. Obtain Personal Finance insights, tax queries, and expert opinions on Moneycontrol or download the Moneycontrol App to stay updated!
