President Joe Biden’s resounding weekend victory in the South Carolina Democratic primary was designed to showcase the primacy and strength of the African-American vote. Black voters delivered in 2020, and they did it again in 2024, was the takeaway the campaign wanted. Black voters matter, in other words.
They got the storyline they wanted. But Biden’s win—with 96 percent of the vote—is much more complicated (and less resounding) than it seems. Polls still show him lagging former President Donald Trump in key metrics with important voting blocs.Turning that around will take more than victories in largely uncontested races in red states with large Black populations.
While there weren’t any exit polls, a clear pattern emerged in the dozens of conversations I had with Black voters here. The traditional base of Southern Democratic voters — older, more conservative, Black women — showed up for Biden. They trickled into polling stations over the last week and handed him a convincing victory. One woman told me that Biden is doing alright by her. Another repeatedly called Biden, “my president,” with pride. His campaign noted that Black voters made up more than three-quarters of the early vote, a larger share than in 2020. In other words, Black voters are enthusiastic and locked in, despite what polls have shown. His campaign blasted out an email with a simple line after the victory: Joe Biden is a Winner. (This was a not so subtle dig at Trump who Biden has tagged “a loser.”)
Yet, Black voters under age 50 aren’t exactly there. At least not yet. Many didn’t bother to vote in the primary. Some even questioned its legitimacy. They aren’t sold on Biden. One likened him to buying a beige Camry—no wow factor, but it’s a car. And they’re giving Trump a second and softer look, though none said they would back him. (Despite the polls, finding Black Trumpers was a needle-in-a-haystack search).
They voted for change and haven’t seen any, one woman said. Biden and his team of surrogates, who blanketed this state over the last weeks, made all the usual stops. They went to HBCUs, Black churches, party events, a high-end barbershop. At speeches they touted low Black unemployment, the expansion of broadband, investment in HBCUs, lower drug pricing, the fight against abortion restrictions, investment in Black businesses and canceling some student loan debt. They cited Donald Trump’s bigoted ways and vowed to fight the scourge of White supremacy that Trump has stoked. And yet, at least to the voters I spoke with, this isn’t a convincing case. It’s clear that Biden and Democrats will have to find new messages (and messengers) and new methods to reach and persuade these voters to back him again.
“Black folks ain’t feeling it. Their message is pathetic,” said MJ, who provided only his initials so he could speak bluntly.
What about the $7 billion investment in HBCUs?
“We will take it but it doesn’t go that far,” he said.“Something is better than nothing. We are always coming from behind and playing catch-up,”
Visits to barbershops, Black colleges and hits on Black radio won’t be enough. Invocations of Black pain as happened when Biden visited Mother Emanuel AME don’t quite land in the same way, particularly if they aren’t coupled with examples of Black power and progress. The threat of white supremacy and the specter of Trump’s racism also don’t quite resonate. If you live with the daily reality of racism, what’s the threat?
Top of mind with these voters is the economy. They mentioned crushing student loan debt. Even a barber who shook hands with Biden isn’t yet convinced that he’ll vote for him again. The reason? Trump, via stimulus checks with his name on them, put money directly into his pocket, enabling him to make a major move.
“When we needed money, he was there. I’ll be forever grateful,” said Alton Chisolm, 37, who said meeting Biden was a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity. “I don’t think I’ll vote for Trump but it’s a possibility.”
In 2020, nearly 63 percent of eligible Black voters cast a ballot. Biden won 92 percent of those voters and Trump carried just 8 percent. A recent poll
showed Biden had the support of 75 percent of Black voters, compared to Trump with 16 percent. Meantime, Trump and Republicans are courting this crucial voting bloc, particularly working-class Black men. As in the last two elections, 2024 will be decided around the margins in a handful of states.
Democrats must keep this in mind: There is no “Black community.” There are 47.9 million Black people in America. Of those, 34.4 million will be eligible to vote in 2024, a jump of 7 percent over 2020. This is a heavily Democratic voting bloc, but it is not monolithic. Church attendance is down post-pandemic, even among older Black voters, but especially among younger Black voters. HBCUs are increasingly dominated by women.
Nobody watches television or listens to the radio as one voter told me. The gathering space is the phone. The lingua franca is Black excellence. So the boast of cutting child poverty or getting WiFi to rural areas just hits different. It doesn’t seem to land at all. Biden touts the appointment of Black female judges. Black voters want a path for their children to become judges or to go to law school themselves. Democrats must adjust to this shifting landscape.
Democratic strategists consistently say that it’s too early to believe the polls showing Biden’s struggles. The campaign hasn’t really started yet and Biden and Democrats haven’t started fully telling their own story, they argue. Biden and his wife Jill Biden recently traveled to Los Angeles to meet with Black entertainment figures to talk about the high stakes of 2024, and to get help in touting their successes. Hopefully they listened more than they talked.
And ideally, the Biden-Harris campaign sees the South Carolina results not so much as a victory delivered by Black voters but as an opportunity to understand them more deeply.
Nia-Malika Henderson is a Bloomberg Opinion columnist. Views do not represent the stand of this publication.
Credit: Bloomberg
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