J&K government formation may come down to post-poll jockeying

Since 2014, the BJP has significantly increased its presence in Jammu, a stark contrast to its single-seat win in 2002. In the 2014 elections, the party won 19 out of 24 assembly constituencies. Even in the recent Lok Sabha elections, the BJP reinforced its dominance in Jammu by winning both seats—the Udhampur and Jammu constituencies.

Analysts believe that the BJP’s success in the Hindu-majority region of Jammu can be attributed to Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s influence and the party’s pro-Hindu policies.

Post-2019, BJP consolidates its position 

In Rajouri and Poonch, Jammu's Muslim-majority districts, the BJP could gain traction following the central government’s decision in February this year to grant Scheduled Tribe status to four new communities, including the Paharis, who reside in the Pir Panjal mountains and make up 8.16 percent of the population of J&K.

The BJP could also gain an advantage from the 2022 delimitation exercise, which raised the number of assembly seats in J&K from 83 to 90. Of the seven additional seats, six were allocated to Jammu and only one to Kashmir.

The voting rights granted this year by the government to 30,000 families of West Pakistan refugees and those displaced by the 1965 Indo-Pak war in the Jammu region—primarily from the Hindu community—could also benefit the BJP.

The introduction of nine reserved seats in J&K for Scheduled Tribes, coupled with new political parties seen as proxies of the BJP and independent candidates, could enhance the BJP's chances of forming the government, similar to their success in 2014.

Dissent in the BJP 

However, as the elections approach, the BJP is grappling with internal squabbles in J&K, marked by increasing friction over ticket distribution.

The party has seen resignations from senior leaders in Jammu and has also seen rising discontent, especially regarding the decision to not contest every seat in Kashmir.

It will be intriguing to see how voters in Jammu respond to the revocation of Article 370.

The initial reaction was one of widespread celebration. However, over time, there has been growing dissatisfaction due to the lack of statehood, joblessness and ongoing economic difficulties. The discontent has been exacerbated by the central government's decision to abolish the 149-year-old Darbar Move, a biannual practice of relocating the seat of governance between Srinagar in the summer and Jammu in the winter.

BJP could also face opposition from the Gujjars and Bakerwals, the third-largest ethnic group in J&K, who last year strongly opposed the decision to include the “Pahari Ethnic Group” in the Scheduled Tribe list.

First pre-poll deal since 1987 

Congress and National Conference (NC) have formed a pre-poll alliance to contest all 90 seats in the Union Territory. This marks the first time since 1987 that the NC and Congress have entered into a pre-poll alliance in J&K.

While the NC focuses on securing the majority of seats in Kashmir, the Congress is concentrating its efforts in Jammu, where its performance has been lacklustre since 2014. For example, in 2002, the Congress won 15 seats in Jammu, but this number dwindled to just five in the 2014 assembly elections.

Despite the Democratic Progressive Azad Party (DPAP), led by former Congress leader Ghulam Nabi Azad, also contesting the elections in J&K, the party, which is primarily based in Jammu, is expected to have a minimal impact on the assembly results. In the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, the weakened DPAP struggled to make a significant impact, with its candidates losing their security deposits and failing to lead in any of the 36 assembly segments across the two parliamentary seats.

Based on the election mood and past trends in J&K, the outcome according to analysts could either be a hung assembly or a coalition government emerging. Traditionally, one regional party is expected to secure more seats in Kashmir, while in Jammu, a national party—either the BJP or Congress—is likely to gain a larger share of the seats.

Using the recent Lok Sabha results as a benchmark for the assembly segments, despite the BJP's traction in Jammu, the NC-Congress alliance remains well-positioned to form the government in J&K.

The elections are taking place in the Jammu region amid a backdrop of heightened violence, with more than 50 security personnel having been killed in militant attacks over the past three years.

For 15 years, almost all ten districts of Jammu had remained largely free of militancy, but since 2021, there has been a significant increase in militant attacks.

According to a J&K police official, militant attacks continue to occur in the Jammu region just days before the assembly elections are set to begin. The official termed these attacks as a deliberate attempt to disrupt the democratic process in the region that has not witnessed elections in a decade.