Jharkhand election seems to have become a referendum on ‘illegal immigration’

* Land: The fear of "outsiders" taking over tribal lands has had deep economic and psychological consequences. The previous Raghubar Das government's attempts to amend the Chotanagpur Tenancy (CNT) Act and Santhal Pargana Tenancy (SPT) Act alienated the tribal community, who believe that the BJP is aligned with "land grabbers". The erratic digitization of land records could become as contentious here as it did in Telangana.

* Unemployment: Unemployment is a significant problem, with mass migration for work being the norm. Formalizing the mining industry is essential to create clean jobs.

* Corruption: The current JMM government is widely perceived as corrupt, in stark contrast to the previous BJP administration. The ED has accused the state government in counterfeiting government stamps; corruption in allotment of coal and MSMEs; illegal sand mining and sale; corruption in MGNREGA; forging land deeds among others. Hemant Soren's image has been an important poll issue.

* Religious Conversion: The BJP alleges that Jharkhand's elections have broader implications as anti-India (Bangladeshi migrants) and anti-Hindu forces (proselytizers) find sanctuary in INDIA formation. The party has criticized the disproportionate representation of Christian tribal civil servants. In 2022, the JMM led Assembly passed the Sarna Code resolution, seeking separate religious status for Sarna followers. The governor had returned the Bill.

Illegal immigration comes to the fore

But over the last month, illegal immigration has bubbled up to become the foremost issue. It seems as if the upcoming elections will be a referendum on the matter. The chief architects of the "mahaul building" are BJP election in-charges for the state - Himanta Biswa Sarma and Shivraj Singh Chauhan.

In his most recent jibe, Sarma exhorted people to drive out Congress’ Alamgir Alam and Irfan Ansari like ‘we removed Babur from Ayodhya’. Chauhan announced that the BJP would implement NRC in Jharkhand to curb infiltration. Mohan Yadav, Madhya Pradesh CM, remarked in a rally that the JMM has turned Ranchi into Karachi.

The JMM has accused the BJP of promoting communal hatred. The Jharkhand High Court has also ordered a panel to investigate Bangladeshi infiltration.

Home Minister Amit Shah has assured to reclaim tribal land from infiltrators and prevent children of infiltrators from receiving tribal status. He also promised that tribals would be exempt from the Uniform Civil Code when implemented.

The Santhal Parganas region, including Pakur, Sahibganj, Dumka, and Godda districts, is the scene of this high-octane political battle Allegations have surfaced about land transfers from tribals to non-tribals through affidavits, known as “Danpatra.”. This region, from where CM Hemant Soren is elected, accounts for 18 of the state’s 28 ST-reserved seats.  

During a rally in Jamshedpur, Prime Minister Modi highlighted the issue of Bangladeshi and Rohingya infiltration, calling it a significant threat. He expressed concern over the rapid demographic changes among tribal populations, alleging that infiltrators were seizing tribal lands and influencing panchayat governance.

Revdi wars

The JMM has made the "Maiya Samman Nidhi" scheme the cornerstone of its campaign. Under this initiative, women aged 18 to 50 are eligible to receive Rs1,000 per month, which is proposed to be increased to Rs 2,500. Kalpana Soren, wife of the Chief Minister, has become the face of the scheme and is a highly sought-after campaigner.

The BJP, in response, has promised the "Gogo Didi Yojana", proffering Rs 2,100 per month for beneficiaries. BJP’s "Yuva Sathi Yojana" promises Rs 2,000 per month for unemployed graduates for up to two years. The BJP has promised gas cylinders at Rs 500, while the JMM is offering them at Rs 450 along with other benefits.

Electoral calculations

Tribals, Dalits, and OBCs constitute 26%, 12%, and 40% of Jharkhand’s population, respectively. The OBCs are largely seen as BJP supporters, and the return of Sudesh Mahto’s AJSU to the NDA fold strengthens the BJP’s position among this group.

In 2019, the JMM-Congress-RJD alliance won 47 out of 81 seats, while BJP secured only 25. However, based on assembly-wise breakup from the recent Lok Sabha elections (NDA won 9 out of the 14), the BJP led in 49 segments compared to the JMM’s 14.  But what has worried the BJP is the party's loss in all the five ST reserved seats.

The BJP, hence, is focusing heavily on Kolhan, a tribal-dominated south-eastern region, where it lost all 14 seats in 2019. Leaders like former CMs Arjun Munda and Champai Soren are spearheading the campaign here.  In the Santhal Parganas, where CM Soren contests from, the JMM led alliance seems to have an edge.

Beta-Beti Politics

Dynastic politics play a significant role in this election with the BJP fielding Champai Soren’s son, Babulal Soren; former CM Raghubar Das’s daughter, Purnima Sahu; Shibu Soren’s daughter-in-law, Sita Soren; Geeta Koda, wife of former CM Madhu Koda; Mira Munda, wife of Arjun Munda; Shatrughan Mahato, brother of Dullu Mahto among others.

Congress has restricted itself to giving a ticket to only one dynast: Alamgir Alam’s (who is in jail) wife, Nishad Alam, contesting from Pakur.

Other notable candidates include Babulal Marandi (BJP chief) contesting from Dhanwar (a non- reserved seat) and former Congress leader Ajay Kumar, now with JMM, in Jamshedpur East. In Ranchi, a prestigious battle will unfold between six-time MLA CP Singh and JMM's Rajya Sabha MP Mahua Maji.

The seat-sharing negotiations within INDIA were not smooth. The RJD was left sulking because it got only 6 seats. Jamshedpur East, Jamshedpur West, and Jamtara are set to witness high-profile contests.

We are in for a nail-biting finish.