Recently, the French President Emmanuel Macron mooted a plan to halt all types of arms deliveries to Israel so that wars in Gaza and elsewhere come to a halt. Macron believes that such a move would force Israel to seek a political solution. France, in any case, is presently not delivering any weapons to Israel. Disruptions in weapons deliveries to warring nations can derail their well-established supply-chain logistics for ammunitions procurement and can badly affect war operations. However, Israel is a significant military power; has trusted allies delivering arms through robust supply-chain logistics; and may dwarf disruptions threat.
France is not the only country to talk of an arms embargo against Israel. So far, Canada, Spain, and the Netherlands have announced arms exports embargo to Israel. These countries have been vocal about civilian casualties in Gaza since the outbreak of the war in October 2023 and have been making loud policy statements to reduce the number of licenses, ammunitions and spare parts being supplied to Israel. Britain was the new addition in September this year when the new Labour Government announced suspension of around 30 licenses out of 350 that ‘could’ be used by Israel for offensive operations. However, the collectivity of these countries can do little to disrupt the supply-chain logistics of arms and ammunitions since they account for less than one per cent of Israel’s arms imports.
Israel’s Reliance on Arms Imports
Israel does import significant arms from international arms market, accounting for 2.1 per cent of global arms imports. The Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) list of ‘Trends in international arms transfers, 2023’ (published in March 2024) shows a marginal increase by 5 per cent in Israel’s arms imports in 2019-23 period compared to 2014-18 period. The US alone accounts for 69 per cent and Germany accounts for 30 per cent of total imports. As Israel goes on its multi-front offensive, its arms imports are likely to rise, defying boycott calls for arms exports amongst more European countries.
In addition to the SIPRI revelations, several factors suggest that Israel would only be 'marginally' affected by any disruptions in ammunition supplies from allied countries.
Israel’s Self-Sufficiency in Weapons Production
Israel has a robust domestic military industrial complex (MIC). There are more than 150 reputed defence companies with a combined revenue of $3.5 billion annually. Three Israeli defence companies (Elbit Systems, Israel Aerospace Industries, and Rafael) figure in the SIPRI list of top 100 arms-producing and military services companies. That speaks why Israel has always figured in the SIPRI list of top-ten arms exporters. Though its exports have gone down by 25 per cent from 31.1 per cent in 2014-18 to 2.4 per cent in 2019-23 of global arms exports in the SIPRI list, this is at best an ephemeral moment and the exports are likely to catch up once Israel is through its multi-front wars. Most importantly, the export advantage gives Israel a leeway to divert the resources inwards to meet domestic demands.
Also, Israelis are weapons wizards in every sense! They have a culture of stockpiling enough war wastage reserves (WWR) to facilitate Israel’s multi-front offensive operations in protracted wars. The Gaza operations are yet to get over. Therefore, it is debatable if the Israeli Armed Forces (IAF) would have taken the attacks to Hezbollah in Lebanon unless having sufficient ammunitions in its kitty and an assured supply-chain logistics. Further, Israel has also been resorting to judicious and selective use of ammunitions. For example, Israel has made heavy use of arial bombing, precision attacks, blockades, intelligence network etc. Ground offensives have been kept to minimum.
US Influence on Arms Supply
The Israeli lobby in the US is quite powerful. Even if there is a change of guard and President Trump comes back, it is debatable if the lobby would let the US arms supplies, presently pegged at $3 billion every year, come down. The US has been a reliable supplier of arms for the Israeli Armed Forces (IAF) for years but has come under pressure to speak for the large-scale civilian casualties in Gaza. Nevertheless, the Israeli lobby has so far prevailed in the US corridors of power and has facilitated the status quo.
Iran’s missile attacks, irrespective of their inconsequential impact over Israeli infrastructure and civilian population, will only strengthen the US resolve to supply more arms and ammunition to Israel. Unlike Gaza and Lebanon where Israel has been waging a war against non-state guerrilla forces, Iran presents a formidable state challenge. It is a clandestine nuclear power, very much like Israel, and has decades of war-fighting experience. Waging a war against Iran requires sufficient stockpiles of arms and ammunition to be bombarded over Iran. US would not let the guard down. In all probability, Israel would retaliate against Iran only after some concrete ‘assurance building exercise’ from the US and other reliable friendly countries for uninterrupted ammunition supplies. If Gaza created a wedge between Israel and many European countries, Iran’s attack may just bring some of them back on the Israeli side of the table and soften their stand.
Israel’s Preparedness for Prolonged Conflicts
The international arms market works both at formal and informal levels. Significant proportions of weapons, particularly small arms, drones, rocket launchers, shoulder-held missiles and sophisticated guns are there in the market for an asking. As a military power with best intelligence network and outreach, it is very easy for Israel to in-source these weapons through informal channels. Israel is intensively exploring all possible options. Most importantly, it is pushing its own MIC towards larger turnover for better stockpiling of quality and sophisticated weapons.
Therefore, at this stage, the French President’s statement is, at best, a symbolic ‘please all’ diplomacy. Israel would continue to bombard the Hamas sites in Gaza and drastically diminish its war-fighting capabilities. The eventful decision to launch offensive operations against Iran would only prove that Israel has enough weapons stockpiles and collegium threats of supply-chain disruptions are, at best, ‘paper tigers’.
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