The new government that will be formed after the declaration of the 2024 general election results, will have to address a complex set of military-related security challenges that would by and large be legacy issues inherited from Modi 2.0.
The two major institutional challenges will be those pertaining to the setting up of functional integrated theatre commands for a large military (one million plus personnel) that has been functioning since 1947 under three independent individual service commands (Army, Air Force and Navy); and evaluating the impact on the composite combat efficiency of the new recruits inducted into the ‘fauj’ for a short four-year period under the agnipath-agniveer scheme. Both these initiatives were unveiled during the second term of the Narendra Modi-led government (2019 – 24).
Follow our Election Result Live blog
Old chestnuts on the geopolitical and fiscal front will remain abiding and these include the challenge posed by an assertive China (Galwan 2020) and the unresolved territorial dispute on one hand; and the low level terrorism challenge posed by Pakistan through its proxy support to such groups. On the fiscal front, there has been a tightening of the purse strings in relation to the modernization of military inventory and this problem has been a recurring feature for the last three decades – going back to PM PV Narasimha Rao's tenure (1991-96).
Introduction of Theatre Commands
The reorganization of the Indian military into integrated theatre commands was a radical decision taken during Modi 2.0 in 2019 with the creation of the post of a CDS (Chief of Defence Staff) and the appointment of former army chief General Bipin Rawat as the first incumbent in January 2020.
Unfortunately, Gen Rawat died in a helicopter crash in December 2021 and the various initiatives he had mooted remained incomplete.
A second CDS was appointed in October 2022 after an avoidable delay of many months and here Modi 2.0 took an unprecedented policy decision in appointing a retired three-star Lt. General to a four-star rank as a General. This raised eyebrows at the time, for it hinted at political considerations trumping proven professional competence in the highest military ranks – an undesirable trend.
Moving towards credible integrated theatre commands (ITC) for a military like that of India, which is relatively conservative and tradition-bound will be an arduous task. This is not unexceptionable and has been the case in most nations where such a transition has been made – from individual service operational commands to a joint template.
The new government will have to accelerate the pace at which this is taking place and while there have been media reports suggesting that some major decisions have been taken – for instance to appoint a four-star Vice CDS and three ITCs, as in one each focused on the China and Pakistan challenges and a dedicated maritime command – these are yet to be announced formally.
Certain structural issues merit comment – as for instance the reservations that the air force has traditionally mooted in the past and the major constraint of shrinking air assets. The 1999 Kargil war highlighted the anomalies in individual service operational planning and the need for unity of military command that would avoid the kind of discord evidenced in the army-air force interface at the time.
Related to CDS General Anil Chauhan taking forward the envisioned theatre commands towards operational fruition, is the appointment of the new army chief. Gen Manoj Pande, the current army chief who was to superannuate in end May 2024 was given a one-month extension and there is unstated anxiety that the selection of his successor may not follow the established seniority principle. This is an issue that the new government will have to address urgently in the first week of assuming office, so that there is no last-minute scramble in appointing a new army chief.
Impact of Agnipath-Agniveer Scheme
It is instructive that the Indian military is going through a complex process of transmutation at the top of the pyramid – the appointment of a CDS and creation of ITCs; and at the base, by way of the four-year tenure for new recruits under the agnipath-agniveer scheme. The new government will have to ensure that this institutional chrysalis is beneficial in the long run, by way of improving the composite combat index of the Indian ‘fauj’ in a sustainable and equitable manner.
The military is the last bastion in providing stability to the Indian democratic voyage and the professional acumen and apolitical ethos of the 'fauj' must remain unsullied. This is the intangible challenge for the new government – Modi led or otherwise.
Discover the latest Business News, Sensex, and Nifty updates. Obtain Personal Finance insights, tax queries, and expert opinions on Moneycontrol or download the Moneycontrol App to stay updated!
