Everyone knew that, after his inauguration, the new US President Donald Trump would announce plans for Gaza in line with his oft stated policy of ‘stopping wars and establishing peace’. On Feb 4, at a joint press conference with the visiting Israeli Prime Minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, he announced that the US would take over the Gaza strip, while Palestinians would all be relocated to other countries, especially to Egypt and Jordon. Stating the need to rebuild Gaza ‘beautifully’, he stressed that Egypt and Jordan would ‘have to’ take refugees from Gaza.
The shocking plan about US 'take over' of Gaza, extra-ordinary warm treatment accorded to Netanyahu during his trip and not so-veiled warning to Egypt and Jordon appear to be Trump’s favourite modus operandi at work.
Start with a maximalist position
At the very start of his term, he employed it with allies like Canada and Mexico. After unilaterally slapping high trade tariffs on Canada and Mexico, he subsequently 'negotiated' non-trade issues of sharing the burden of managing security of borders with the US. This has been one of the high point of his election campaign- preventing arrival of and pushing out illegal migrants, who normally come through US land borders.
His modus operandi was very clear-Take a maximalist position first and then negotiate to achieve his hidden goals.
Even before Trump assumed office on January 20, 2025, he got involved in the politics of the Middle East. With the approval of former President Joe Biden, his envoy for the Middle East, Steve Witkoff started working along with former Secretary of State Anthony Blinken towards achieving a multi-phase Israel-Hamas deal for a ceasefire in Gaza. The deal took effect a day before the inauguration of Trump and expectedly, he claimed full credit for pushing Hamas to accept a ceasefire with his ‘famed’ threat of ‘all hell breaking loose’ if the war did not stop by his inauguration. However, even during the election campaign, credible US media had reported that Netanyahu had been asked by the Trump team to ‘stop the war in Gaza’ before he took office. So while the Trump team, for domestic political reasons, pushed Hamas openly, Israel was pushed in private meetings.
Trump 2.0 adapts to responses
The Arab states, led by Saudi Arabia reacted swiftly to sharply reject the Gaza proposal and reiterated their call for the two State solution based on 1967 borders, with East Jerusalem as the capital of Palestine.
Within 24 hours, the White House press secretary, Karoline Leavitt had to clarify that the US would neither have boots on the ground nor spend taxpayers’ money to rebuild Gaza. Rather the Trump administration would work with regional partners to reconstruct the region. Describing Trump as the 'best deal maker on the planet’, she stressed that Trump expected partners, especially Egypt and Jordan to accept refugees from Gaza ‘temporarily’ so that Gaza could be rebuilt.
Subsequently, in a further come down, Trump clarified that Israel would transfer the Gaza Strip to the US for rebuilding, once the war was over and all people there had been temporarily relocated to other countries. This put paid to his original plan under a massive, but anticipated, push back not only from big powers like China, Russia and Europe, but more importantly from the Sunni Arab States who have united on the Palestinian cause due to prolonged and devastating wars in Gaza and Lebanon.
Middle East in 2025 is a very different place
The Middle East Trump 1.0 had left behind is radically different from the Middle East Trump 2.0 is dealing with. In 2017, Saudi led Sunni States had snapped ties with another Sunni Arab of Qatar, one of the closest US ally, on the charges of aiding ‘terrorist groups’ like the Muslim Brotherhood, Hamas and the Houthis in Yemen against the interests of the Gulf states.
Trump also withdrew from the Iran nuclear deal and almost declared an indirect war with Iran by targeting Iranian assets in Iraq, including killing the top Iranian General Qasem Soleimani in a drone strike. Then, the Sunni Arab States were a divided lot and Iran led Shia allies were seen ‘hostile’ actors by the Sunni states. The threat of the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS) ruling swathes of Iraq and Syria had added to the fault lines within the Middle East. Moreover, Trump was busy investing heavily in stitching together the Abraham accords between Israel and the Sunni Arab States.
The threat of ISIS has reduced considerably after the fall of the Caliphate in 2019, even though the network remains strong across rural areas of Iraq and Syria. The issue of Iranian threat to the Sunni Arab States has become a non-issue over the past four years due to hard geo-politicking by all concerned. Last year, China brought together Saudi Arabia and Iran and since then, both sides have deepened their engagement. The Sunni Arab states are united behind the goal of a sovereign, independent state of Palestine.
Israel’s in a bind
Interestingly, it is equally difficult for Israel to go ahead with the original plan. Though beaming but confused Netanyahu, welcomed the proposal at the press conference, yet Israel’s Far Right considers Gaza to be their land too. There will be serious implications for Israel in transferring the land or even rights to use the land to the US, even if it meant removing all Palestinians from there. Israel has no bandwidth to push two million people out of Gaza without inviting serious backlash from within and from the region. The unravelling of Syria whereby a former Al Qaeda linked Sunni extremist group, the Hayat Tahrir al Sham (HTS) has taken power over vast areas, does not augur well for Israel.
Trump’s plan looks like a non-starter for now, but he is likely to keep making similar unilateral announcements around the Gaza issue. This is going to keep the pot boiling without the Trump administration having to move on taking concrete steps on its own. Trump has actually thrown the ball into the court of regional partners, including Israel through his first shrewd move.
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