The ‘Game of Thrones’ to grab power in Pakistan has just intensified with the return of former prime minister Nawaz Sharif to the country on October 21 after four years of self-exile. But make no mistake, Sharif’s return just months ahead of the general elections, in what is a clear attempt to become the PM for the fourth time, could not have happened without the acquiescence of the all-powerful Pakistan Army. It is no wonder then that the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) leader is getting swift relief in cases against him in the country’s courts. These cases had kept Sharif away from Pakistan since 2019 fearing a return to prison. Pakistan’s leading English daily The Dawn put it rather eloquently when it said in a headline, ‘Nawaz’s legal hurdles fall like dominoes’ while detailing the cases where he’s got relief from the courts.
Imran Out, Nawaz In?
Undoubtedly, the generals at General Headquarters (GHQ) Rawalpindi are preparing the ground for Sharif to challenge arch political rival and former PM, Imran Khan and his party, the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI). This, despite the fraught relationship Sharif himself has had with the Pak military. As for Khan, he’s been in prison since August, convicted of corruption in the Toshakhana graft case. His party cadres, too, continue to face a stiff crackdown after the events of May 9 this year when they went on a rampage, even ransacking the house of the Lahore corps commander. Then, earlier this week, Khan was indicted in the cipher case for violating the Official Secrets Act along with former foreign minister Shah Mehmood Qureshi for possessing a confidential diplomatic cable.
Unseated as PM in April last year through a no-confidence vote, Khan was once the GHQ’s blue-eyed boy and had become PM with the military’s backing. But once he began challenging the Army’s authority as PM, he rapidly fell from grace. With numerous cases stacked up against him, the generals are ensuring that the still hugely popular Khan is unable to contest the upcoming elections. This will hit PTI’s poll prospects. While Sharif’s conviction too needs to be overturned for him to throw his hat into the electoral ring, this is likely to be engineered in due course given that he now has GHQ’s backing.
Consequently, Sharif’s return to Pakistan has had a rather triumphal air about it. The tag of “proclaimed offender” was virtually consigned to the dustbin as he was accorded treatment worthy of a “state guest”, as noted by the Pak media. He held a huge jalsa (rally) at the Minar-e-Pakistan the very same day he landed in Lahore. His speech, sounding like a campaign pitch, was a mix of the maudlin and realpolitik. So, on the one hand, he told his party’s supporters how he could not say a final goodbye to either his dying wife or pay his respects to his parents. On the other hand, he listed some of his achievements as the PM, lamented Pakistan’s dire financial situation and promised to put his country back on the road to economic recovery. Whoever becomes the PM, getting Pakistan’s economy back on track will be a mammoth and challenging task.
Sharif also made a telling remark – that he has “no wish for revenge”. So, does it mean he’s actually willing to let bygones be bygones with the generals who orchestrated his ouster as PM more than once? It does seem likely that a deal has been struck with the generals to allow Sharif to return to the saddle. He has refrained from any attacks on the deep state as he’s done in the past. Turning 74 this December, Sharif knows this will probably be his last shot at the prime ministership. The generals, in turn, need to prop up a candidate for the polls, with Imran Khan having gone rogue. Pakistan has a long history of leaders continuing to walk through the revolving door depending on the whims of the deep state. Sharif himself knows what he’s walking into, having been sacked from the premiership during each of his three tenures.
Nawaz’s Past Overtures to India
The Indian establishment is watching the political drama unfold with keen interest and, perhaps, a measure of cynicism. For, though Sharif talked about the need to “maintain good relations with our neighbours” in his Lahore address, mending bilateral ties will be an uphill task. India will find it difficult to re-engage with Pakistan given its own red lines on the need for its neighbour to first put an end to cross-border terrorism. The Kashmir dispute remains the perennial bugbear. Expectedly, Sharif did mention Kashmir in his speech saying that “we will work in an honourable way”. Whether this means dialogue as the way forward remains to be seen.
New Delhi-Islamabad ties have virtually been non-existent in recent years in the wake of the Pathankot and Pulwama terror attacks which India believes were sponsored by Pakistan. Bilateral relations nose-dived further after India revoked Article 370 taking away Jammu and Kashmir’s special status and bifurcated the state into two union territories in August 2019. It prompted the then Imran Khan government to downgrade ties by deciding not to send the high commissioner-designate to New Delhi, while also expelling the Indian envoy to Islamabad. Bilateral trade, too, was suspended.
It is amidst this backdrop of mistrust and acrimony that New Delhi and Islamabad will need to resume ties, if and when they decide to do so. Sharif, for now, seems the best bet, given that he is seen as being willing to engage with India, even at the cost of being considered “soft” on it. For instance, during his third stint as PM, he got flak domestically after the India-Pakistan joint statement on the meeting between PMs Modi and Sharif on the margins of the SCO Summit at Ufa in Russia did not mention Kashmir.
Sharif also chose in 2014 to take up Modi’s invite for his government’s swearing-in, shrugging aside the military’s unease over his decision to attend. It was again on PM Sharif’s invitation that PM Atal Behari Vajpayee undertook the historic bus journey from Amritsar to Lahore in 1999 and signed the Lahore Declaration. It appeared then to be the initial step towards normalising relations. But then the Kargil conflict erupted a few months later, engineered by then Pakistani Army chief Gen Pervez Musharraf. Sharif, who agreed to a ceasefire brokered by then US president Bill Clinton, later sought to distance himself from this conflict, blaming the military for it.
For now, Sharif seems back in favour with the real powers behind the throne in Pakistan. Whether he will again attempt to smoke the peace pipe with India, only time will tell. Eventually, it’s the generals who are the power behind the throne.
Parul Chandra is a New Delhi-based senior journalist who writes on foreign affairs. Twitter: @ParulChandraP. Views are personal, and do not represent the stand of this publication.
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