To say that 2020 has been annus horribilis for India will be an understatement. But, the cynic would argue that it has been catastrophic for the world too. They have a point there.
COVID-19 has been clearly agnostic, railroading communities across the world, wreaking unparalleled devastation in its wake. We experienced vicariously what The Great Depression of 1931 was perhaps like, as ruined economies barely floated amidst a total shutdown.
It was a dystopian terror tale, and there were no exceptions made by the infernal pathogen.
It impacted politics too. United States President Donald Trump was hoping to ride a Wall Street bull run and fairly impressive employment figures for a second term in the White House until the US experienced the COVID-19 tsunami.
India has had the second-highest infection cases (10 million-plus and rising) and human casualties (149,000-plus) after the US; so how has Prime Minister Narendra Modi navigated the traitorous waters, unpredictable, unforeseen as it was?
Evidently, better than Trump. Unlike his US counterpart, Modi has further solidified his political foundations. The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) looks insuperable. The year 2021 could be a marker of the saffron party’s national footprint, far beyond the Hindi heartland that has been its traditional stronghold. It will have significant political ramifications for India’s democratic polity.
India’s GDP slumped by a humongous -23 percent in Q1 of fiscal 2020-21 as result of the draconian lockdown. Unemployment soared, industry stagnated, migrant crisis ballooned, and the communal temperature rose amidst the rampaging mayhem. Despite these daunting headwinds and a 15 year anti-incumbency, the BJP with its ally the Janata Dal (United) retained the crucial state of Bihar. It was a stunning performance beyond the pale of rational expectations.
That trend would continue in the by-elections to several states, with Madhya Pradesh returning to the BJP after a brief flirtation with a fragmented Congress. But it was the two local urban body elections in southern India, Greater Hyderabad Municipal Corporation and in Kerala that sent out an audacious message of the BJP’s escalating growth in hitherto virgin territories where it had been a marginal player earlier. The emerging political metabolism of the BJP towards Kanyakumari will shape the direction 2021.
There are four major states going to the polls in 2021; Assam, West Bengal, Tamil Nadu and Kerala; and also the Union Territory of Puducherry. Modi is perhaps the only global leader among the G20 countries whose popularity has shot up post-March. To call it elephantine will not be an exaggeration.
It is a unique phenomenon that has most analysts nonplussed. It is expected that the BJP will market their unconquerable leader with generous dollops of publicity and programmes to overcome local hurdles.
Assam promises to be an intriguing battle as this will be the first public referendum after the controversial Citizenship Amendment Act/National Register of Citizens/National Population Register kerfuffle in that troubled state that has seen detention camps for illegal immigrants. The Congress had the largest vote-share in 2016 despite surrendering the state after a 15-year reign under the late Tarun Gogoi. But can it now take on the BJP in a polarised environment in a complex state with a chequered ethnic, religious and linguistic history?
West Bengal has already become a tempestuous battleground state where Mamata ‘Didi’ Banerjee and BJP’s former chief and master strategist Amit Shah are leaving no stone unturned to win. Bengal is seeing a dangerously inflammatory election campaign that threatens to replace Bengal’s classic syncretism with sulphurous hate.
The Congress-Left combine can be a dark horse here, but it is more likely that they will end up damaging the two frontline players. It is a fascinating, intriguing contest. Tragically, it is also blatantly sectarian. Expect Hindu-versus-Muslim to reach an ear-splitting crescendo here.
Worryingly for the Congress, the swing state of Kerala under Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan might buck its conventional flip-flop from the Left Democratic Front to the United Democratic Front every five years. That could be disconcerting for the Congress, as it desperately needs an electoral resurrection.
The BJP, intelligently anticipating a slightly diminished presence following its mountainous tally in the northern-central states in 2019, has its ‘compensating strategy’ of ‘Going South’ well formulated.
Albeit it is predicted that the DMK-Congress will win Tamil Nadu, the BJP seems unconcerned as it is playing for the long-term, maybe 2026, by when it could destabilise the DMK-AIADMK hegemony.
Bottom-line: 2021 will probably see a further preponderance of BJP giving it a breakthrough presence in South India which appeared barricaded not too long ago. India could see the return of a single-party dominant political paradigm similar to the run Congress had till the late 1960s.
There is only one party that can possibly halt the rhapsodic juggernaut: the Congress. But at the moment the grand old party seems frail. There are elections due for the post of the Congress President and the Congress Working Committee this month. Can the Congress resuscitate itself, galvanised by a new leader, or will it relinquish further space to the BJP? That could probably determine the larger narrative of the year. As the stupendous farmer protests that has paralysed the BJP-led central government have demonstrated, things can change…and can change dramatically.
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