If Congress-TMC talks collapse, who will it benefit in Bengal?

Meanwhile, Left’s biggest ally in state Congress, the beleaguered Pradesh Congress Committee President Adhir Ranjan Chowdhury, is systematically echoing CPI-M’s allegation against Trinamool that the ruling party is indulging in “competitive communalism” with the BJP to polarise the poll and thus a seat adjustment with Mamata Banerjee is unacceptable to him. In this context a seat adjustment is unlikely.

The question therefore is how the INDIA bloc will suffer if a seat adjustment in Bengal collapses.

The answer has two sides to it.

At one level, no one will suffer much as neither Congress nor the Left has managed to cut into Trinamool’s vote share over a decade. While Trinamool’s vote increased, Congress-Left’s reduced routinely.

Congress got two seats – Baharampur and Malda South – in the last Lok Sabha poll (2019) and Banerjee was willing to leave these two. In a third seat – Murshidabad – Congress bagged the second spot. Fighting independently if Congress wins these three seats – all in Murshidabad district with about 70 percent Muslim population – Banerjee need not worry much as these are traditional Congress bastions.

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Rather, if Congress-Left alliance minus Trinamool emerges as a third bloc in the state and manages to increase their share it would be hugely beneficial to Trinamool. Since it is mainly the Left’s anti-Mamata vote that got transferred to the BJP in 2019 Lok Sabha to ensure 18 of 42 seats for the saffron party.

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A rise in Congress-Left vote will automatically reduce BJP’s share as was indicated in 2023 Panchayat poll. Thus, an uptick of at least 5-7 percentage points in Congress-Left bloc votes from 13 percent (2019) is perfect for Trinamool.

But a further dip in the Congress-Left share from 13 percent will only benefit the BJP. The saffron party got 40 to Trinamool’s 43 percent in 2019. If the voteshare gap reduces, BJP may overtake Trinamool which is no good news for Banerjee two years before the Assembly poll in 2026, especially at a time when her nephew Abhishek Banerjee is still learning the tricks of the trade.

One disadvantage of not aligning with Congress is depletion in Muslim votes. The Muslims are routinely talking about “teaching a lesson” to Banerjee. Without a doubt this is a problem for Banerjee but a slight rise in Congress-Left votes could offset the growing resentment among the minorities.

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The trend in Bengal in the last decade is interesting – a deeply bipolar poll helps Trinamool in the Assembly but enhances BJP’s share in the Lok Sabha. So for now Banerjee ideally should try to break the pattern and push for a formation when Trinamool and BJP are the main players with a reasonably strong Congress-Left.

In case she ties with Congress and leaves the Left in the lurch, it may bite her in the end as more Left voters who are bitterly anti-TMC could switch to BJP. Therefore over the last weeks she has tried her best to distance herself from Congress in the state. At this point it makes sense electorally.

Suvojit Bagchi is a Kolkata-based journalist who previously worked with Ananda Bazar Patrika, BBC World Service and The Hindu. Views are personal, and do not represent the stand of this publication.