India has every reason to be pleased, having managed a joint declaration at the G20 Summit amid what seemed overwhelming odds in a world sharply divided over the Ukraine war. That the summit was able to issue a New Delhi Leaders’ Declaration announced by Prime Minister Narendra Modi is indicative of India’s deft diplomacy that made consensus possible. What also worked to India’s advantage is its growing salience as a rising power that the Western nations seek to back as a valuable ally to counter an increasingly belligerent and expansionist China. The two other big takeaways were the induction of the 55-member African Union (AU) as a permanent member of the G20, and the announcement of the India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor (IMEC), which will also compete against China’s ambitious Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) and debt-trap diplomacy.
Forging A Consensus, Despite Differences
For India, as the chair of G20, it was essential to have a joint declaration endorsed by leaders of the world’s most powerful nations in order to burnish its credentials as a rising power. Therefore, New Delhi used all its diplomatic heft to ensure the seemingly insurmountable differences over Ukraine did not become a hurdle to the issuance of the joint communique. The tough negotiations, expectedly, centred around the wording to be used for the Ukraine war, with both Russia and China opposed to any criticism of Moscow on the conflict. Neither Russian President Vladimir Putin nor Chinese President Xi Jinping attended the Summit.
Much as the G7 nations led by the US wanted to push for a stronger statement condemning Russia on the Ukraine war, the final text was more anodyne than last year’s Bali Declaration that had deplored Russian aggression and demanded “complete and unconditional withdrawal from the territory of Ukraine”. Knowing well that such a stance would make both Russia and China see red and scuttle consensus, India pushed for an agreeable, if slightly watered-down text on Ukraine. Consequently, with Russia not being directly mentioned, the declaration broadly stated “all states must refrain from the threat or use of force to seek territorial acquisition against the territorial integrity and sovereignty or political independence of any state”. However, the declaration did make a pointed reference to Russia’s threats of using nuclear weapons against Ukraine with the declaration stating, “The use or threat of use of nuclear weapons is inadmissible.”
African Union Joins G20
While member-states may have their differences over the Ukraine war, they came together to give their nod for the induction of the 55-member AU into the G20. Thus far, only the European Union grouping enjoyed that privilege. The AU’s inclusion, with India pushing for it, should go a long way in lending a fillip to India’s efforts to be the voice of the Global South, coming as it does at a time when African nations have been hit hard by the pandemic and are also facing the economically debilitating consequences of the Ukraine war. That India’s voice matters in what is a premier global economic forum should also help New Delhi earn further goodwill from the African nations. This is essential, especially against the backdrop of the deep strategic inroads made by China in the continent by executing infrastructure projects there under its BRI.
While India has, for long, been a close partner of African nations and enjoys historical ties with many, China’s growing influence among them has caused unease in New Delhi as well as many other world capitals. Having enjoyed deep political and economic ties with the resource-rich continent, New Delhi has also stepped up its engagement with African nations in the defence-security arena as well. This has been especially the case with African countries lying on the Indian Ocean littoral like Mozambique and Tanzania as well as Seychelles, Mauritius and Madagascar.
India will now need to ensure it carries forward the momentum it has generated in giving voice to the Global South. While India, for instance, showed diplomatic acumen in hosting the India-Africa Forum Summit (IAFS) in 2015 on a grand scale, with leaders of 41 of the 54 African nations attending, it has allowed the momentum this generated to be somewhat frittered away. While the IAFS was to be conducted once in three years, no meeting has been held since 2015. While the Covid19 pandemic played spoilsport too, India would have done well had it organised a virtual meet at the foreign ministers' level, just as Beijing did in 2021 when it hosted such a meeting of the Forum on China-Africa Cooperation.
IMEC For Mega Connectivity
China was once again the elephant in the room when the decidedly ambitious IMEC was announced on the margins of the summit after a meeting co-chaired by PM Modi and US President Joe Biden. A statement announcing the proposed connectivity corridor said IMEC is “expected to stimulate economic development through enhanced connectivity and economic integration between Asia, the Arabian Gulf, and Europe”. It will have two separate corridors – the eastern one connecting India to the Arabian Gulf and the northern one connecting the Arabian Gulf to Europe. A mix of shipping routes and railway networks are to be used for this mega project linking India at one end to the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Israel and Europe. Joining hands in this endeavour, apart from India and the US, are Saudi Arabia, the UAE, France, Germany, Italy and the EU.
While on the face of it, IMEC sounds good, it remains to be seen how it will be implemented as it needs a large number of countries to work together across a vast geographical landscape. The cost of this corridor and the logistics of executing it will pose a challenge too. Railways minister Ashwini Vaishnaw has asserted that IMEC will be different from the BRI in not sending countries into debt traps. For now, with just the initial MoU signed, a lot is up in the air as far as its execution and funding are concerned though countries on board IMEC have resolved to work collectively on it.
For India, long denied direct land access to West Asia owing to its difficult relations with its neighbour Pakistan and an Afghanistan forever in turmoil, IMEC should prove to be a connectivity game-changer should it take-off. For, the Chabahar port in Iran, which India has been promoting for long as an alternative route to Afghanistan, Central Asia and beyond while bypassing Pakistan, has failed to take off in view of Washington’s sanctions on Teheran. IMEC may well be just the answer to India’s long-drawn quest for connectivity via the sea and land routes to Central and West Asia and beyond. But between the idea and the reality lies a long and difficult road ahead.
Parul Chandra is a New Delhi-based senior journalist who writes on foreign affairs. Twitter: @ParulChandraP. Views are personal, and do not represent the stand of this publication.
Discover the latest Business News, Sensex, and Nifty updates. Obtain Personal Finance insights, tax queries, and expert opinions on Moneycontrol or download the Moneycontrol App to stay updated!
