The two biggest economies of the European Union, Germany and France, have recently unseated their governments over fiscal priorities. France is slightly better off, as its executive presidency does not depend on a legislative majority to continue, while the German Chancellor derives his authority from a parliamentary majority.
Most commentary has tended to fault French President Emmanuel Macron for bringing on the French crisis, first by appointing a prime minister from the conservatives and, then, by proposing a budget that pursues fiscal discipline via €40 billion of spending cuts and €20 billion of fresh taxes, to the horror of the Left parties, who have the largest presence in Parliament. A leader in The Economist pontificates that the vote of no-confidence that has unseated the prime minister appointed by Macron, Michel Barnier, has created political instability that would benefit the far-right National Rally in the next round of elections to the French Parliament and, in 2027, to the presidency. Rubbish.
Such an analysis stems from seeing government purely as an administrative arrangement, devoid of politics. After the far-right National Rally made significant gains in the elections to the European Parliament in June this year, similar commentators concluded that the political momentum had swung to the Right, and Marine Le Pen was a shoo-in to succeed Macron in 2027. Then, Macron dissolved Parliament and called snap elections.
Macron's Bold Move
The French have two rounds of voting to elect MPs to the Lower House, called the National Assembly, and to elect their President. In the first round of elections to the National Assembly, the National Rally did very well. That prompted rethinking and a sort of regrouping among the parties opposed to the xenophobic National Rally. Macron led the move to put up common candidates in as many seats as possible against the candidates of the National Rally.
A leftist grouping emerged as the largest bloc in the newly elected National Assembly. The radical right came in third, with Macron's centrist grouping emerging as the second largest. The Centre-Right Republicans came in last. The National Rally's political momentum was demolished. Those who focus on the administrative viability of coalitions saw only the lack of majority for any grouping in the new House. They still failed to see Macron's dissolution of Parliament as a tactic to isolate and diminish the far-right party.
Macron chose a prime minister not from the largest bloc, nor from his own centrist grouping, but from the conservatives. He appointed Michel Barnier, the tough Brexit negotiator on the EU's behalf. Barnier presented a sensible budget that lowered France's fiscal deficit, an imperative given that France's national debt has ballooned to 112% of GDP.
The Left opposed the spending cuts. The Right opposed Macron. They refused to pass the Budget. The French Constitution has a peculiar provision that allows the government to pass a law without a majority, leaving the majority with the option of voting out the government to defeat the law. That would automatically trigger the dissolution of the House.
Dissolving Parliament
Macron could have asked his prime minister to seek compromise and accommodation. He chose not to and preferred to let his government fall, exposing, in the process, the disruptive and irresponsible attitudes of the Left and the Right.
Since the elections to the National Assembly early in July, Macron's government has conducted the Paris Olympics, considered a success, much to the surprise of the French. The Seine was cleaned up; both fish and Olympic medal-seekers could swim in the river. And now, the Notre Dame cathedral has been restored after this Catholic place of worship, which has come to represent the soul of secular France, was ravaged by fire in 2019.
When President Macron declared that the cathedral would be restored to its original glory in five years flat, few took him seriously. But the task has been accomplished, although it took five years and five months. Few would grudge him those extra months, given the splendid job the restorers have performed, by all accounts.
Macron praised those who performed expert, continuous toil to rebuild the roof – made of lead and supported by a massive lattice of wood, dubbed the Forest, thanks to the quantity of timber used to build it – strengthen the walls, clean the stained glass windows that had survived the fire, and rid the walls and surfaces of accumulated grime and dirt. The workers have converted ash into art, said Macron.
Rallying EU Support
At a time when politicians barely manage to perform the sundry tasks of governance, Macron has clearly emerged as a leader who cannot just talk of his vision of Europe as a geopolitical power centre independent of the US but also get difficult things done. It is ridiculous to think that this would not rub off on his party's electoral performance in elections to the National Assembly when they are held, probably mid-2025.
Macron probably would not rest on his laurels. He would probably rally support from other EU members to block the free trade agreement that the European Commission has struck with the Latin American trade grouping, Mercosur. Tariff-free Argentine and Brazilian agri exports could hurt French farmers. France has one of the largest shares of people living off agriculture in the rich world, close to 5%.
For the FTA to take hold, the European Council must ratify it, with members accounting for two-thirds of the EU population supporting it. If at least four members, with a combined population of at least 35%, oppose the deal, the FTA would be blocked. Macron would probably mobilise that support for the French farmers' case against the FTA.
Macron's centrist formation would be far stronger in the days to come than it is today. The rise of the National Rally would remain a pipedream, even without Le Pen being disqualified for corrupt practices in the European Parliament, a likely prospect at the moment.
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