France's economy is doing well. But no one believes it. Emmanuel Macron is doomed

Pension protesters’ placards bearing slogans like “commute, work, die” belie the post-COVID rebound for leisure: After last year’s record profits at railway operator SNCF and a blowout winter ski season, six out of 10 French people are planning summer getaways. Conversations in restaurants often involve a lengthy analysis of la crise nationale over main courses, before complaining over dessert that travel spots are sold out.

France isn’t the only country to have an upbeat economy amid political gloom — the US also experienced a “vibecession” last year — but the ability of Europe’s No 2 economy to avoid recession while reforming itself matters hugely amid the shock of the energy crisis and war. This isn’t just about LVMH SA or Hermes International’s ability to sell handbags to the Chinese — which is why the Paris stock market has been among the world’s best performers — but also about France’s debt pile stretching to protect the worst-off from inflation’s rise and keep income inequality low. Surveys suggest that the French are gloomy about the country’s prospects, but satisfied with their own lot in life — another paradox.

Macron’s lack of an absolute parliamentary majority and inability to run for a third term has made him look like a spent force even within his own party and allowed far-right nemesis Marine Le Pen — France’s Donald Trump — to gain in popularity by ditching radical ideas like Frexit. The French electorate’s contradictions are on full display, with polls showing regret over Macron’s re-election precisely because he’s keeping his reform promises. “Macron is hated because he did what he said he would do,” as Jean-Marie Colombani, Le Monde’s former editor, put it.

This has led to increasingly grandiose calls for change in France, including a less presidential “Sixth Republic,” and fresh generational thinking after the stuffy era of Covid lockdowns and a rightward shift in voter attitudes. Macron’s immediate priority should be more precise: To build a dependable parliamentary majority for future reforms by rolling his sleeves up and finding a workable coalition with a policy road-map rather than ad-hoc vote-gathering. Later on, instead of a Sixth Republic, Macron should eventually aim to change ill-advised electoral terms designed two decades ago that discourage coalitions.

Lionel Laurent is a Bloomberg Opinion columnist covering the European Union and France. Views are personal, and do not represent the stand of this publication.

Credit: Bloomberg