The seizure of power in Myanmar by the military on February 1 morning and the detention of popular leader Aung San Suu Kyi and other senior leaders of her National League for Democracy (NLD) has been condemned across the globe. The United States called it a “coup d'etat” and the Joe Biden administration has threatened sanctions against Myanmar.
A UN statement said “developments represent a serious blow to democratic reforms in Myanmar”. India has voiced “deep concern”, saying the 'rule of law and the democratic process must be upheld'; Australia, France, the United Kingdom, and Japan have condemned the developments.
Analysts have been trying to ascertain the rationale behind the move, with a state of emergency declared for a year. While Myanmar's election process is not perfect, observers have ruled out the kind of fraud alleged by the military-led opposition. Another reason floated is that Suu Kyi was moving too close to the Chinese. This has been debunked because the Tatmadaw, as the army is called in Burmese, has close relations with China, and military rule would mean renewed dependence on Beijing to ward off international criticism. Remember, Beijing is yet to condemn the developments in Myanmar.
While world leaders have been calling for the release of Suu Kyi, her detention has been welcomed by the Rohingya refugees, which is understandable as she was seen to not have raised her voice — or raised it loud enough — on the persecution of the Rohingya.
Feted as the icon of democracy for her political activism to end decades of military rule in Myanmar, Suu Kyi had been honoured with numerous international awards, including the Nobel Peace Prize in 1991. Expectations were high since her party won with a landslide the 2015 general elections; but pressure mounted as she seemed unable to make much headway in pushing for reforms, and in resolving Myanmar's ethnic conflicts.
It was the August 2017 crackdown on the Rohingya Muslims by the army in response to the attack by the militant Arakan Rohingya Salvation Army that brought her the greatest derision. An estimated 622,000 Rohingya fled to neighbouring Bangladesh. Almost 288 villages were partially or totally destroyed by fire in the northern Rakhine state.
Myanmar has been accused of genocide at the International Court of Justice in The Hague. Suu Kyi had denied these charges, defending the army as having carried out a legitimate campaign against Rohingya militants who attacked police posts. For this, many of her international awards had been rescinded.
Yet, analysts have warned that it was unfair to expect imported models to work in Myanmar's complex and complicated polity. Suu Kyi herself had said as much. While writing that international condemnation around the Rohingya “hampers our ability to lay the foundation for sustainable development in a very diverse country” she had simultaneously acknowledged “war crimes that may have been committed by members of the defence services will be prosecuted through our military justice system,” promising action. She had also warned that it was “never easy for armed forces to recognise self-interest in accountability for their members.....”
Is it a coincidence then that the man behind the coup, Commander-In-Chief Min Aung Hlaing has been condemned internationally for the alleged Rohingya ‘genocide’.
Operating in a fragile democracy, with the army wielding enormous power, Suu Kyi had nevertheless tried to take steps to curb the army's reach. In March, for instance, her party had tried to (unsuccessfully) push for a reduction in the number of seats (currently 25%) reserved for the military in parliament over the next 15 years.
In October, in a China-brokered agreement, Suu Kyi's government agreed to facilitate the repatriation of those Rohingyas who had sought refuge in Bangladesh during the 2017 crackdown.
That the coup came just on the eve of the civilian government moving into its second term points to the fact that if anything it was to pre-empt Suu Kyi's party from consolidating its hold in parliament. This, if nothing else, vindicates Suu Kyi's trepidations of the civilian government.
Will the coup resuscitate Suu Kyi's moral standing as a human rights defender? Some are predicting her political demise. Whether she can make a comeback will depend on her ability to fight back, given her age and health. But her detention definitely is a vindication; it is also a reminder that she remains Myanmar's best bet for democracy and the rule of law.
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