In the end it was not even a fight in most places. As the BJP stormed to victory in four of the five states that went to the polls, the alarm bells were well and truly ringing for what remains of the Opposition across India.
The biggest prize undoubtedly is Uttar Pradesh. Though the exit polls all had the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) retaining power, the scale of the victory would have surprised even some in the party itself. The ‘double engine’ government of Prime Minister Narendra Modi at the Centre and Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath at the state was too strong for the Akhilesh Yadav led SP-RLD alliance. With the BSP and the Congress almost imploding, the BJP with its smaller alliance partner Apna Dal, was leading in 270-plus seats out of 403.
The result, the first time since 1985 that an incumbent government in UP has been re-elected, has also catapulted Adityanath to the national stage. Despite Hathras, Lakhimpur Kheri, farmers’ agitation, oxygen shortages during the pandemic, and dead bodies along the Ganges, to be able to win such a huge mandate is no mean feat. Adityanath will surely now move into the list of contenders for the Prime Minister's job when the BJP looks into the question, ‘Who after Modi’.
In Punjab, the infighting in the Congress appears to have paved the way for the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) to expand its governance footprint beyond Delhi. The Channi vs Sidhu fracas after the unceremonious exit of Captain Amrinder Singh seems to have ensured that the grand old party snatched another defeat from the jaws of what should have been a victory. With a strong anti-BJP sentiment prevailing in Punjab after the farmers’ agitation, the Congress again failed to capitalise on this sentiment ceding space to AAP. The rout of the Shiromani Akali Dal (SAD) was also noteworthy with both the Badals trailing as the time of writing.
The Congress has never looked as weak as it does today. Had it held on to Punjab or at least Uttarakhand, it could have looked at a revival plan for the 2024 general elections. Even a win in Goa would have given it at least straws to clutch. Instead, another electoral rout has left the party facing an existential crisis. Without a leader, the party is doomed and increasingly it is clear that the Gandhi family will have to make way for someone else if the party is to not implode. Priyanka Gandhi Vadra's efforts in UP too came to naught.
Uttarakhand usually votes out incumbent government's every five years, and so there was hope for the Congress here of running the BJP close. Congress leader Harish Rawat was given a reasonably free hand after he expressed his displeasure over candidate selection. In the end it hardly mattered as the BJP romped back to power. Appointing three chief ministers in one term and having a not so great development record in the state over the term did not seem to dent the saffron party's image with the electorate.
The BJP's dominance of the North East continues with the victory in Manipur; again a more or less foregone conclusion with N Biren Singh, the former footballer-turned-Chief Minister winning another term in office.
Goa was a surprise too in that the BJP, after the demise of Manohar Parikkar and the lacklustre track record of Pramod Sawant, was expected to make heavy weather of the electoral battle. But the multi-cornered contest with the TMC-MGP alliance and AAP eating into the Congress vote, appears to have made it easier for the BJP to retain their hold on power. With the party leading in 19 out of the 40 seats it looked very likely that a BJP government will be installed again in Goa.
With a little over two years to go for the general elections, the March 10 results have given the BJP a big fillip as it seeks to cement its position as the natural party of governance. AAP will now make renewed efforts to expand its footprint in the run up to 2024, and try to erode the base of the Congress even further in other states. Their next target may be Gujarat, which goes to the polls in December. The regional parties will watch this result with anxiety. Unless the Congress revives, the chance of them having a share of power in Delhi in 2024 seem remote. This is because in over 200 seats the Congress and the BJP are in a straight fight, and unless the grand old party pulls its weight, the victory of the regional forces alone will not count for much.
The BJP juggernaut shows no signs of slowing down. For the Opposition, the crisis of credibility has only become a lot bigger.
Sumanth Raman is a sports commentator, TV anchor, and political analyst. Views are personal, and do not represent the stand of this publication.
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