The assembly elections round the corner (in Punjab, Uttar Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Goa and Manipur) have produced an incredible range of freebie promises which seem to have set a new record. The key issue about these promises is that the states’ finances will not be able to support them.
This has raised serious governance issues for the post poll period, even posing fundamental questions about the viability of the democratic process in the future.
AAP has promised to transfer Rs 1,000 per month into the accounts of every woman in Punjab, calling it the biggest women empowerment programme in the world. Plus there will be 300 units of free electricity per month for every household and 24-hour power supply. Its promises in Goa are even more expansive – 80 per cent of jobs to be reserved for locals, a government job for an unemployed person in every family and an unemployment allowance of Rs 3,000 per month for every unemployed person.
In UP, the ruling BJP, not to be outdone by those who will challenge its reelection, has announced free rations for those below the poverty line and Antodaya card holders and Rs 1,000 a month to daily wage earners.
As can be expected, the most far out promises are being made by political parties like AAP, Akali Dal and Trinamool Congress, which are making a bid for power. Their attitude seems to be – if we lose, we do not have to deliver, but if we win then we shall cross the bridge when we get to it. Hence, they have set out to make promises without a sense of responsibility as to whether it will at all be feasible to deliver on even some of them.
Exaggerated pre-election promises made by non-serious players need not be worrisome as they are unlikely to come to power and try to implement them. But what is worrisome is the impact that these are having on the ruling parties. In order to put up an equal fight, it is becoming incumbent on them to also make some big ticket promises which will be a halter round their necks if they come to power again.
Irrespective of who comes to power, there will be a real resource crisis as the different state governments get down to delivering on at least some of the promises made by the winner, in order to retain some credibility. States’ finances are already in very poor shape. There will be a full blown financial and constitutional crisis if as a result of diverting resources to pay for the freebies, states default on their debt repayment obligations.
Companies that go bankrupt but have intrinsically viable businesses, can change hands at their written down value with the new owners pumping in cash and restarting operations. But what happens when a democratically elected government with a five-year mandate goes bankrupt? Does the governor concerned dismiss the government and the state goes in for fresh polls? What happens if this becomes a periodic feature? What can be the way out of such a constitutional crisis?
What is happening in UP, the country’s most populous state, is instructive. It is taking steps to come up with a supplementary budget by the end of the year. Thereafter, armed with resources, it can go in for making its own set of promises and begin to deliver on them right away. This will be what can be termed as ‘reactionary’ agenda, not well thought out, which can do no long term good.
Before the assembly elections in West Bengal camps were organised for 30 days (duare sarkar) to address people’s problems in accessing sundry schemes and helping them to be reached to the citizens’ doorsteps. It goes without saying that such camps have not been held after the party returned to power. On the other hand, the kanyashree programme to empower young girls by giving them scholarships so that they keep reading and are not married off at an early age, was a great success and won international recognition. It was not announced suddenly before an election.
Expectedly some state ruling party leaders are protesting against the freebies being promised by the aspiring parties. Navjot Siddhu, the Punjab Congress chief, responding to the AAP freebies, said the people would not fall for such “lollipops” unless they were backed by proper policies, budgetary allocations and an administrative framework to deliver them.
Development specialists point out that there is nothing wrong in having a policy-led elaborate social security programme that seeks to help the poor get out of poverty. But such a programme needs well thought out preparation and cannot be conjured up just before an election. The opening of new colleges, as promised in Uttarakhand, where an adverse political situation has led to successive changes of chief minister, is a very positive step, but this has to be done according to a plan to fill the geographical gaps in colleges. If such a plan existed new colleges would have started according to a rational schedule and not have to wait for elections.
Perhaps the best observation has come from Y K Alagh, economist and educationist, that the electorate is nobody’s fool. It will take all the freebies already being distributed and then vote according to its carefully thought out assessment of performance. Much depends on whether the electorate can see through all this posturing.
Views are personal and do not represent the stand of this publication.
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