By Subhakar Alapati
As the US prepares for another presidential election, Donald Trump has proposed a significant shift in immigration policy that targets Indian graduates, promising them automatic green cards upon graduation. This proposal, couched in the language of merit and opportunity, suggests an attempt to attract the world's top talent. Trump said, "You graduate from a college, you should automatically receive a green card with your diploma." While this offer might seem attractive, it is important to take it carefully.
Historically, Trump's tenure was noted for its stringent immigration stance, including severe policies and travel bans. His new promise indicates a potential shift towards a more inclusive immigration strategy. This pivot, if executed sincerely, could greatly simplify the path to residency for many who significantly contribute to the US economy and technological innovation.
However, the existing challenges for international students remain daunting. In 2023, US student visa (F-1) refusal rates soared to 36%, effectively denying 253,355 international students the chance to study in the States—a stark increase from previous years and nearly double the rate for other visa categories, as per ICEF Monitor. These high refusal rates add considerable stress and uncertainty for those planning to pursue higher education in the US, casting doubt on the feasibility of Trump’s promises.
Emotional and Psychological Impact
The prospect of an easy path to residency in the US inflicts a profound emotional and psychological toll on students. Motivated by the promise of stability, many invest heavily in application processes and tuition fees. A study abroad aspirant from Delhi, Kajal Agarwal said, "It’s a gamble, but one that could secure my future. The thought of getting a green card makes all the stress and expense worth it."
Another student from Hyderabad, Raza Razwi said, "I know it's not guaranteed, but I can't help but hope. This could change everything for me." The potential rewards fuel hope and determination, despite the formidable odds. Moreover, the uncertainty surrounding the implementation of such policies adds to the anxiety. Students often face pressure from families and peers, heightening the emotional burden.
US As the Top Choice
The Open Doors Report released in November 2023 reveals a record-setting increase in the number of Indian students in the United States, marking a 35% rise from the previous year to an unprecedented total of 268,923 students for the 2022-23 academic year. Indian students now constitute over 25% of the international student body in the US, showcasing their significant presence and impact on American campuses.
Notably, India has surpassed China for the first time since the 2009/10 academic year as the largest source of international graduate students in the US, with a staggering 62.6% increase in Indian graduate students. The number rose to 165,936, significantly bolstering their representation in advanced degree programs. Additionally, the number of Indian students participating in Optional Practical Training (OPT) continued to lead, reflecting their keen engagement with practical training opportunities in their fields of study.
Parallelly, the Oxford International's Student Global Mobility Index (SGMI) report, released on April 2024, found that the United States is the top destination for Indian students looking to study abroad. According to the report, 45 per cent of the surveyed students pointed to the quality of education as a key reason for their choice of study destination. Among these students, 69 per cent chose the US, 54 per cent selected the United Kingdom, and 43 per cent opted for Canada, making these countries the most popular choices. Australia also emerged as a favoured location, with 27 per cent of respondents choosing it for their higher education.
Shifts in Preferences
Trump's declaration has already altered prospective students' behaviours. Study abroad consultancies have received numerous applications of students aspiring to study in the US. Students who were previously considering European countries due to visa uncertainties are now shifting their focus to the US. Despite the potential financial and emotional burden, many are willing to take the risk for a chance at permanent residency. An aspirant from Chennai, Vignesh Ananthasubramanian said, "This could be a life-changing opportunity. I’m ready to invest in my future, even if it means taking a financial hit now." Another study abroad aspirant from Kochi, Sripad Kilikar, who earlier wasn’t applying to the US, added, "I was considering Europe, but the green card offer has made me reconsider. The US seems like a better option now."
READ | 93% education agents say record number of students seeking to study abroad: Report
The US hosts the maximum number of international universities, with institutions like Harvard, MIT, and Stanford consistently ranking among the top in the world. This abundance of high-quality educational opportunities further enhances the appeal of studying in the US, especially if there is a possibility of gaining permanent residency upon graduation.
A Promising Future or Political Strategy?
Trump's immigration promises are not new. His previous administration was marked by a mix of harsh measures and grand proposals, leading to sporadic and inconsistent policy enactments. For instance, despite Obama's efforts to streamline residency paths for skilled workers and undocumented immigrants, these initiatives often met stiff political resistance and implementation challenges.
The US immigration system, known for its complexity, often sees policies fluctuating with political tides, complicating the pursuit of a green card. While Trump’s current promise suggests a shift towards inclusivity, it is crucial to view it within the broader, often volatile, context of US immigration policy. The timing of his announcement—amidst an election campaign—raises questions about its sincerity, suggesting it may be more about garnering votes than making genuine policy adjustments.
For now, the allure of permanent residency in the US remains strong, and Trump’s promise serves as a beacon of hope for many international students. However, the real measure of this policy's value will lie in its implementation. Until then, scepticism remains warranted. The US continues to be a highly sought-after educational hub, offering not just advanced learning opportunities but also the prospect of a better future, albeit within a challenging immigration landscape.
The Author is Founder Director, Global Tree Careers.
Views are personal and do not represent the stand of this publication.
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