India’s over-reliance on Sher Bahadur Deuba’ ability to form government in Nepal may have led it to misjudge the scenario that brought a pro-China regime in Kathmandu.
Pushpa Kamal Dahal “Prachanda” became the new Prime Minister of Nepal with the support of Kharga Prasad Sharma “Oli”—a leader widely perceived as having a pro-Beijing tilt.
Both Prachanda and Oli have in separate interviews assured that they will pursue a balanced approach between Nepal’s two important neighbours—India and China.
But in a “push-comes-to-shove” scenario, it is not clear if this regime will maintain its neutrality.
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Deuba’s Nepali Congress (NC) had emerged as the single largest party in parliament with 89 seats. But with a five-party alliance it managed 136 seats and fell short of the majority—138, in the 275-seat House.
Power-sharing pact
Dahal’s Maoist Centre, with 38 seats, was the third largest in parliament and part of the NC-led alliance.
Oli’s Communist Party of Nepal (United Marxist-Leninist) with 78 seats was the second largest party in Parliament.
Deuba and Prachanda had a power-sharing agreement under which the two leaders would take turns for the prime minister’s post for two-and-a-half years each. But differences arose on which of the two will get the first shot at the coveted post.
Prachanda switched sides and joined Oli after Deuba refused to leave the prime minister’s post for him.
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Oli and Prachanda had a bad falling-out some years ago and had remained bitter rivals since. But Oli decided to bury the hatchet and decided to accept Prachanda as prime minister for the first two-and-a-half years in a power-sharing agreement.
He also managed to stitch up an alliance with the support of five smaller parties that has given the new regime 172 seats in parliament.
The new arrangement and the fast-paced political drama in Nepal have not only left Deuba and his NC in the lurch but has also put his two main backers—India and the United States -- in an embarrassing position.
Chinese role
It is not clear yet what role China may have played in turning the table in Oli’s favour. But given its proclivity to meddling in Nepal’s internal affairs and ensuring a regime of its choice, Beijing’s role in bringing the two communist leaders together is not being ruled out.
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Significantly, Maoist Centre general secretary Barshaman Pun returned to Nepal as results of the parliament election were out after a fortnight in China.
He had always been in favour of an alliance between Oli and Prachanda and is said to have played a role in bringing the two leaders together.
In addition, tNepalese President Bidhya Devi Bhandari, a nominee of Oli and a leader who has maintained close contact with Chinese officials, was also opposed to Prachanda’s earlier alliance with Deuba.
India’s relationship with Oli had soured when New Delhi, unhappy with Nepal’s new constitution that marginalised the Indian-origin Madhesi population in Nepal, imposed a six-month blockade that created an economic and humanitarian crisis in Nepal.
As Prime Minister, Oli reached out to China for supply of essential items to deal with the India-imposed blockade and his relations with New Delhi have been seriously damaged since.
New irritant
Although, in subsequent years attempts were made to repair his relations with India, fresh strains in ties developed when Oli decided to announce a new map of Nepal that showed areas claimed by India as part of Nepalese territory.
The new map depicted Limipiyadhura, Lipulekh and Kalapani—areas claimed by India -- as part of Nepal. The decision came in the wake of India’s decision to build a road link to Mansarovar in the Tibet Autonomous Region of China through Lipulekh.
But many observers saw Oli’s decision to announce the new map and play the nationalist card of standing up against India to have come at a time when his leadership in Nepal was under severe stress and he was being isolated within his communist alliance.
Oli was thrown out of power shortly and Prachanda replaced him as prime minister and reached out to India to build a cordial relationship.
India would have preferred Deuba as Nepal’s prime minister. The ambassadors of India and the US were seen frequently engaging with Dueba when NC emerged as the single largest party after the parliamentary elections in Nepal.
But the assumption that Deuba will be able to form the government went horribly wrong because of serious differences between him and Prachanda on the prime minister’s post.
The fact that Oli could outfox Deuba and break the alliance was not factored in by the NC leader or his backers.
Prachanda
India had laid out the red carpet when Deuba visited the country in April this year. But in July, when Prachanda came on a visit, he failed to meet Prime Minister Narendra Modi though he had requested such a meeting.
In the past, Prachanda had been a beneficiary of India’s support and was able to become the prime minister when he had fallen out with Oli.
PM Modi was one of the first foreign leaders to congratulate Prachanda when he was elected as prime minister last week.
To maintain political stability and economic growth, neither Prachanda nor Oli may be keen to embark on any policy that is likely to hurt India’s interest and raise concerns in New Delhi.
But the coming months will prove how adept the communist-led regime in Nepal is in balancing its relations with its two big neighbours—India and China without making either feel marginalised.
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