The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)’s election juggernaut continues to roll after its better-than-expected performance, the latest in the bypolls held recently. The victory accrues immediate benefits in the presidential elections due next month. Of the 10 seats that went to the bypolls, the national party won five.
This result will alter the dynamics in states, and provides a psychological edge to the BJP ahead of the 2024 general elections.
Coming on the back of surprise wins in the Rajya Sabha and the Member of Legislative Council polls in Maharashtra, the victory is a vindication of the strategy and strength of the BJP’s election machinery. How the party consistently wins, despite the odds, is a case study for political scientists.
The BJP victory in Rampur and Azamgarh — both in Uttar Pradesh and both seats considered strong seats for the Samajwadi Party (SP) — sends a symbolic message to its core/anchor voting segment of OBCs. The party sends two MPs, one from the Yadav community and the other a non-Yadav, strengthening its hold and cementing its position as the sole claimant of Mandal politics.
While the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) candidate Draupadi Murmu is a clear favourite to win in the presidential elections, the bypoll victory provides the BJP an additional 1400 votes, or 0.1 percent vote share in the electoral college.
The loss in UP puts SP chief Akhilesh Yadav on the back foot. The loss poses a question mark over the political acumen and leadership abilities of Akhilesh Yadav. While BJP leader and UP Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath campaigned in both the seats, Akhilesh Yadav did not!
The loss could see an increase in infighting in the SP: Shivpal Yadav, and Akhilesh Yadav’s uncle, could foment trouble within the party, Azam Khan (who is the minority face of the SP) could sulk again, and SP ally OP Rajbhar could break the alliance.
The results have come as a blessing in disguise for Mayawati’s Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) which has been down in the dumps for some time now. Mayawati could not stake claim on the Muslim vote, accusing the SP of not being able to defeat the BJP. UP’s bipolar trend could again turn triangular if the BSP capitalises on its performance in Azamgarh. In the long run, this could work in the favour of the BJP.
The BSP’s strategic decision to contest from Azamgarh and give Rampur a pass, also played a role in the SP’s defeat. This has also strengthened the SP’s allegation that the BSP is the BJP’s ‘B-team’ — a reference used to say that one party is tacitly helping the other.
In Tripura, where the BJP repeated its Gujarat and Uttarakhand experiment of replacing the Chief Minister shortly before the polls, its dominance continues. The party was expected to suffer losses due to dissent in its camp.
However, the BJP benefitted from a split in the Opposition vote between the Congress and the Communist Party of India (Marxist). The Congress and the CPI(M) may need to form an alliance like in West Bengal to have a fighting chance.
Mamata Banerjee’s Trinamool Congress (TMC) has yet again suffered a loss after its forgettable outing in the Goa assembly elections. The loss in Tripura is a big blow to its expansion plans in the Northeast. Its strategy of admitting rebels from outside has backfired, and it needs to get back to the drawing board.
For the Aam Aadmi party (AAP) the inability to retain the Sangrur Lok Sabha seat, which fell vacant upon Bhagwant Mann moving to the assembly, could be read as a show of no confidence by the people in the party which won a resounding victory in the state a few months ago.
With this AAP has lost its lone Lok Sabha MP. The non-fulfilment of its promises, the interference from Delhi in Punjab’s governance, and a poor law and order situation could be factors that went against AAP.
AAP’s alleged soft Khalistan approach may have helped Simranjit Singh Mann, a known Khalistan sympathiser, winning. Given Punjab’s border status, great care must be taken by all political parties, especially the ruing AAP, to not fan separatist sentiments.
There is an anti-Delhi sentiment among Punjabis, and Bhagwant Mann needs to be mindful of the role played by Delhi Chief Minister and AAP convenor Arvind Kejriwal in running Punjab.
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