Will it be a vote for change or continuity? Will it be a decisive verdict or a hung assembly? Voters in Punjab answer these questions on February 20 when they cast their ballot to elect a new government.
In the third phase of the seven-phase assembly elections to five states (Goa, Manipur, Punjab, Uttarakhand, and Uttar Pradesh), on February 20, 59 of the 403 constituencies in UP, and all the 117 constituencies in Punjab will go to the polls. It will be the first time that Punjab is witnessing a multi-cornered contest on all assembly seats with strong two-cornered contests, which in some seats are three- and even multi-cornered.
In Punjab, there is a divided Congress, its main opponent the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP), a resurgent Shiromani Akali Dal (SAD)-Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) alliance, and an unconventional Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)-Punjab Lok Congress combine.
Among the key contestants in this phase of the polls from UP are Samajwadi Party chief Akhilesh Yadav, law minister Brajesh Pathak, and Union minister SP Baghel.
For now though, all eyes are on Punjab where the narrative has shifted to security and terrorism in the last few days of campaigning.
An allegation by former AAP leader Kumar Vishwas that Delhi Chief Minister and AAP Convenor Arvind Kejriwal has links with Khalistani sympathisers has heated up the poll battle in the border state. While Kejriwal has rubbished the allegations, the Congress and the BJP have upped the ante on this issue.
The reason goes beyond just the obvious wish to win Punjab. After cementing its position in Delhi, an expansionist AAP has set its eyes on becoming a national party, and a win in Punjab will bolster its ambition. Both the national parties fear that AAP might emerge as a credible alternative in other states and become a force to reckon with. Gujarat and Himachal Pradesh go to polls in December later this year, and in both the states it is a direct fight between the BJP and the Congress. AAP has already created a buzz in Gujarat, the home state of Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Home Minister Amit Shah.
For AAP, a win would be a feather in its cap, as Punjab would be the first full-fledged state to be governed by Kejriwal’s party, which has been in power in Delhi since 2015.
AAP's optimism in Punjab stems from the response it has received in all the three regions: Malwa, Majha, and Doaba.
Is this response a yearning for change?
Malwa accounts for 69 of the 117 constituencies, and mostly decides which party will rule the state. AAP had been strong in this region ever since it ventured into Punjab. Out of the 20 seats that it won in 2017, 18 were in Malwa. Except Giani Gurmukh Singh and Darbara Singh, all the 17 Chief Ministers in Punjab since 1966 have come from Malwa.
With its chief ministerial candidate Bhagwant Mann also contesting from Dhuri in Malwa, AAP is hopeful of winning in Punjab, unlike when it choked in the slog overs in the 2017 assembly polls.
Of the remaining 48 seats, 25 are in Majha, and 23 in Doaba. The urge for change resonates in these two regions as well, and in the battle of perception, AAP has taken a clear lead here too.
Where does this leave the Congress and the SAD?
The grand old party initially recovered a lot of ground after forcing the exit of Captain Amarinder Singh, and appointing Dalit leader Charanjit Singh Channi as Chief Minister five months ago. However, since then it has lost momentum.
Congress in Punjab is plagued with infighting, which is being played out in the open. Congress leader Rahul Gandhi’s announcement of Channi as the chief ministerial face and the ensuing Channi-Navjot Singh Sidhu slugfest could hurt the party in the polls.
The much-hyped Congress’ strategy to win over the Scheduled Caste votes by making Channi Punjab’s first Dalit Chief Minister doesn’t seem to be working. The ‘poor Dalit’ image Channi has created isn't resonating on the ground. His remarks about “bhaiyas” from UP and Bihar have put the Congress in a tight spot.
On the other hand, the SAD is said to have regained some of the lost ground. But its resurgence is expected to help the Congress as it is likely to cut into AAP’s votes.
The BJP, too, is making some noise after its alliance with Singh. It is hoping to make some inroads in urban areas, and among the Hindus, despite facing the ire of farmers over the now withdrawn farm laws.
On March 10, we will get to know whether the yearning for change catapults AAP to power, or the Congress is able to beat the odds, or whether there is no clear winner in this election in Punjab where every political party has a well-defined edge.
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