The multi-front trade war that US President Donald Trump is waging has some more obvious impacts: the uncertainty of US-China relations and the India-US-Russia situation. However, in the Indo-Pacific other changing dynamics have been catalysed by this latest season of confusing US policies. Parallel to the 50% tariffs India now faces, the US and Pakistan have turned a new corner in their relationship with a growing proximity between the two states, reflected in a lowered tariff rate and a new oil deal. India now finds itself dealing with a seemingly US-backed Pakistan that could bring about a new dynamic to relations in the region.
Asim Munir recently remarked at a dinner in Florida that Pakistan, as a nuclear nation, could “take half the world down” in relation to a conversation on India and the Indus river– a major point of contention between the two countries. Although this is not a cause for alarm bells in New Delhi, this sabre-rattling by Munir on American soil seems reflective of Pakistan growing increasingly emboldened by Trump’s recent warming towards Islamabad. It is also worth noting that while India refuted Trump’s claims of having brokered peace between India and Pakistan after clashes between the two in June, Pakistan put out a statement acknowledging American intervention.
Pakistan’s risk-on, risk-off behavior
Historically, whenever Pakistan has had the United States’ backing, it engages in more risk-taking behaviour with India, and this is unlikely to be an exception. For instance, in the mid-50s during the Cold War, Pakistan became a key ally to the US and joined multiple military alliances (SEATO and CENTO). During this period the US also provided Pakistan with huge amounts of financial aid. Although there were other factors at play as well, Pakistan perceived these ties with the US to be a form of cover and launched Operation Gibraltar in 1965.
Given the current tensions between India and Pakistan that culminated in clashes subsequent to the terrorist attack in Pahalgam earlier this year, if Pakistan perceives a green light from Washington, it could be more belligerent in its dealings with India.
India’s unquiet eastern front
Another concern that has not materialised yet for India but could very well be on the horizon is a new gambit from Pakistan on India’s eastern front. Under Sheikh Hasina, India and Bangladesh had significant ties characterised by trade and diplomatic cooperation. However, after Hasina’s exit, the rise of anti-India sentiments in Bangladesh has given it common ground with Pakistan. The interim government in Dhaka under Muhammad Yunus has brokered a thaw after 15 years of no diplomatic engagements between Pakistan and Bangladesh.
The foreign secretaries of the two countries met earlier this year after a decade and half. Since then there have been other signs of a commitment towards bilateral ties between the two, including trade and a relaxing of visa rules. Yunus also reaffirmed Pakistan’s version of the narrative on the ceasefire, thanking Trump for his ‘mediation’.
A two-front challenge, with a difference
As a result, India must now consider the risks of a two-front challenge on its borders with both Pakistan and Bangladesh. A spokesperson of the Pakistani army remarked in an interview that in future conflicts with India, Pakistan could ‘start from the East’. This would force India to split its focus between the two fronts– both regions with domestic instabilities and frequent insurgencies. Unlike the LoC between India and Pakistan, the border between India and Bangladesh is not as heavily monitored or militarised, which would make it easier for sub-conventional actors to permeate across. An antagonistic Bangladesh and a Washington-backed Pakistan make for a dangerous partnership for India.
An added dimension to this complex relationship, is the surprising softening of US policy towards China of late. Historically, the US and China have countered each other’s influence in the Indo-Pak relationship.
Today, on one hand, the US shows signs of relaxing its policies towards China on both economic and diplomatic fronts. On the other hand, China may perceive US influence in Pakistan to be at odds with its own deep ties with Pakistan in terms of both defence and trade. Yet, China would also likely be in favour of fiscal bailouts for Pakistan from the US.
The coming months are likely to be pivotal in determining the nature of this dynamic, given the upcoming conversations between the US and China after the extension of the tariff truce. Suppose the talks between the two countries indicate a further softening of the rivalry. In that case, China will likely ignore a US-backed Pakistan since it serves China’s interests in countering Indian influence in the region. However, if the relationship turns antagonistic, Beijing may be much more wary of American influence in its backyard.
India needs to focus on mending ties with smaller neighbours
The challenges India faces due to this diplomatic domino effect are difficult but not insurmountable. Given the uncertainty of ties with both the United States and China, India should renew its focus on the region. The last few years have seen some souring of India’s ties with other neighbours like Nepal, Sri Lanka, and the Maldives. At this juncture, India should try to preserve and strengthen those ties and not neglect the importance of that regional buffer.
The most significant risk for India now, is inaction. Given the uncertainty surrounding the dynamics in the region and the unpredictability of Trump’s policies, waiting for Washington to stabilise may not be the best course of action. Instead, prioritising building a regional firewall through an active effort to improve ties with neighbouring states may be a better course of action– and the only way to ensure that a two-front challenge doesn’t become a reality.
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