There is a strong wave of anti-incumbency in Kerala with the Opposition United Democratic Forum (UDF) comprising the Congress positioned as a change alternative and the National Democratic Alliance fast gaining ground as a third option, the Kerala Vote Vibe Survey 2026 has revealed.
As per the survey, as many as 62 percent of the voters surveyed want to replace their current MLA as against only 23 percent wishing to maintain status quo in the state, aligning strongly with the anti-incumbency sentiment.
Assembly elections in Kerala are scheduled to conclude by May next year.
Shashi Tharoor, the Congress MP from Thiruvananthapuram, has emerged as the top choice as the UDF's chief ministerial candidate with 28.3 percent backing the four-time Lok Sabha MP, the survey showed.
A gender-wise breakup of the findings showed more men (30%) backing Tharoor as the UDF's CM face than women (27%) with the support considerably higher among those aged 55 years and above (34.2%) than those aged 18 to 24 (20.3%).
Within the ruling Left Democratic Front (LDF), incumbent Chief Minister is no longer the popular choice as the face of the alliance, as per the survey with only 17.5 percent voting to see Pinarayi Vijayan as the CM face. On the contrary, Kerala minister KK Shailaja has emerged as the top choice among voters with 24.2 percent backing her as the LDF's chief ministerial face.
However, the survey also shows a clear leadership vacuum in both alliances with 27.1 percent of UDF supporters uncertain about whom they wish to see the alliance project as the Chief Minister. The figure stands much higher for the ruling LDF with a massive 41.5 percent uncertain about the chief ministerial face of the alliance.
Notably, the Kerala CPI(M), the largest constituent of the LDF alliance that has been in power in the state since 2016, strongly endorsed Vijayan as the face of the LDF alliance for the 2026 polls in March this year.
Tharoor, on the other hand, has been known for his independent streak even at the cost of causing discomfort to the Congress high command. His recent engagement with the BJP-led central government during Operation Sindoor, where he best articulated India's position vis-a-vis Pakistan-backed terrorism, the Indus Waters Treaty and the military offensive, has not gone down well with the Congress leadership.
However, there has been a strong view within a section of political observers who believe that Tharoor could be the best bet for a faction-ridden UDF alliance for the 2026 polls. The alliance has faced two back-to-back defeats in state Assembly elections, a departure from Kerala's history of electing alternating governments. Another defeat could spell trouble not just for the Congress but also its allies, including the IUML.
In the 2016 Kerala polls, the CPI(M)-led LDF registered a landslide victory, winning 91 of the 140 seats in the state Assembly. The UDF, on the other hand, was reduced to 47 seats while the NDA and Independent PC George bagged one seat each.
In the last elections held in 2021, the incumbent LDF increased its tally to 99 seats, marks the first time an alliance won consecutive terms in the state since 1977. The Congress-led UDF saw its tally reduced to 41 seats despite seeing a rise in vote share.
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