Rajya Sabha Polls 2024: What’s at stake in upcoming elections and why it matters

Predictions Favour NDA in 31 Seats, Congress May Hold 10

Reports suggest fifty-three of the 56 candidates are projected to win their seats without facing opposition. The NDA is positioned to clinch 31 seats, with the Biju Janata Dal expected to secure two and the YSR Congress party three. The Congress is likely to hold onto 10 seats. Additionally, allies within the INDIA bloc—namely the Samajwadi Party, the Trinamool Congress, and the Rashtriya Janata Dal—are predicted to win three, four, and two seats, respectively.

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NDA Introduces 3 Additional Candidates

Among the 10 members retiring in Uttar Pradesh, nine hail from the BJP, yet the party is poised to secure seven of those seats. The Samajwadi Party (SP), which saw a massive rise in its tally from 47 in 2017 to 111 in 2022, is likely to claim the remaining two seats.

The NDA introduced three additional candidates for the upcoming Rajya Sabha elections from Uttar Pradesh, Karnataka, and Himachal Pradesh. This last-minute development in the nomination process signals an intensifying competition in these three states. In Uttar Pradesh, where 10 seats are at stake, the BJP has named prominent realtor and former parliamentarian Sanjay Seth as its eighth candidate to contest against the three candidates put forward by the Samajwadi Party.

The BJP is likely to secure seven seats, while the SP is confident of securing two seats. However, for the final seat, the SP falls short by four votes, potentially requiring the consideration of second-preference votes.

BJP Poised to Secure Additional Seat in Bihar

Meanwhile, the saffron party is expected to gain a seat in Bihar. Out of the six retiring members in Bihar, two belong to the JD(U) and two to the RJD, with one each from the BJP and the Congress. Considering the current composition of the Assembly, the BJP and the RJD are projected to win two seats each, while the JD(U) is likely to secure one. The RJD-led Opposition holds sufficient numbers to secure the sixth seat, which the Congress is also competing for.

Maharashtra Elections Under Spotlight Amid Political Realignment

In Maharashtra, the elections are poised to attract considerable scrutiny following significant political realignments in the state, spurred by divisions within the NCP and the Shiv Sena. The BJP has named Ashok Chavan, while its ally Shiv Sena selected Milind Deora for the state, rewarding the two high-profile Congress defectors. The parties opted not to renominate more than half a dozen Union ministers to the Upper House, suggesting that they might be asked to contest the upcoming Lok Sabha polls.

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Experts say the BJP's strategic move to generously reward Congress crossovers is seen as a tactic aimed at notably undermining the Opposition in anticipation of the general elections. Additionally, this aligns with Prime Minister Narendra Modi's ambitious goal of securing over 400 seats in the forthcoming polls.

BJP's Harsh Mahajan to Challenge Cong's Abhishek Singhvi

In Himachal Pradesh, where only one seat is up for contention, the BJP has named Harsh Mahajan, a former Congress leader and close associate of long-time Chief Minister Virbhadra Singh, to compete against the Congress's Abhishek Singhvi. Despite the Congress holding a comfortable excess of eight votes in the hill state, the BJP will be relying on potential cross-voting by 10 lawmakers to secure the election of its candidate.

Nadda Renominated from Gujarat

BJP chief Nadda, whose tenure ends in April, has been renominated from Gujarat instead of his home state Himachal Pradesh. This move highlights the party's recognition of its limited ability to ensure his election from Himachal, particularly with the Congress currently holding power in the state.

3 Prominent Ministers Denied RS Candidacy

Three prominent ministers who were denied renomination to the Upper House include Education Minister Dharmendra Pradhan (elected from Madhya Pradesh), Environment and Labour Minister Bhupendra Yadav (from Rajasthan), and Micro, Small, and Medium Enterprises Minister Narayan Rane (from Maharashtra). There is speculation that all three may be called upon to show their electoral appeal by contesting Lok Sabha seats from their respective home states.

Telangana Parties Refrain from Additional Candidacies

It is expected that all candidates put forward by the parties in both Andhra Pradesh and Telangana will be elected unopposed, devoid of any eleventh-hour drama. The Congress in Telangana and TDP in Andhra Pradesh abstained from contesting the additional seat due to insufficient numbers. Of the three vacant seats, the ruling Congress in Telangana could have secured two, and the opposition BRS could have secured one unanimously based on current numbers in the Telangana assembly. However, both parties refrained from fielding additional candidates to avoid potential acts of poaching.

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YSRCP Set to Secure All Seats Unopposed

In Andhra Pradesh, voting would have been necessary if the TDP had fielded a candidate. As it stands, the YS Jagan Mohan Reddy-led YSRCP can comfortably win all three seats. The YSRCP had already faced the challenge of cross-voting in the MLC polls held in March last year. Based on the size of the Andhra Pradesh Assembly, parties must secure a minimum of 44 first-preference votes to secure each Rajya Sabha seat. If the TDP had chosen to field a candidate, they would have needed the support of at least 25 MLAs from the YSRCP to secure a seat.

BJP-JD(S) Introduce 5 Candidate to Challenge Congress

In Karnataka, where four seats are at stake, the Janata Dal (Secular) has named party leader and former Rajya Sabha member Kupendra Swamy. The Congress is assured of three seats, and the BJP of one. However, for the fourth seat, the ruling party is short of one vote. The upcoming elections are poised to be a high-stakes affair, with the BJP-JD(S) alliance introducing a fifth candidate. This strategic move is aimed at unsettling the ruling Congress and potentially paving the way for cross-voting scenarios.

To secure a seat, a candidate needs a minimum of 45 votes. With four seats up for grabs, the Congress, boasting 135 MLAs in the 224-member Assembly,, can potentially secure three seats if there is no cross-voting. Meanwhile, the BJP, with 66 MLAs, can ensure the election of Narayansa Bhandage, leaving them with 21 surplus votes. The JD(S) holds 19 MLAs. Despite only four candidates being required for an uncontested election, the addition of Reddy to the fray necessitates an election. The outcome will be determined by preferential votes.

Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Chhattisgarh to Reflect Recent State Poll Results

The Rajya Sabha poll outcome is expected to mirror a similar pattern in Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, and Chhattisgarh, the three heartland states won by the BJP in December assembly polls. Among the five retiring members in Madhya Pradesh, four hail from the BJP and one from the Congress. Given the current party strengths, the anticipated outcome is likely to remain unchanged. In Rajasthan, where two BJP members and one from the Congress are retiring, both parties possess sufficient strength to secure the same number of seats. Similarly, in Chhattisgarh, where a BJP member is retiring, the party is poised to reclaim the seat.

Will Political Balance Shift Following Results?

Out of the 56 Rajya Sabha seats up for grabs, 28 belong to the BJP, 10 to the Congress, four to AITC, three to BRS, and two each to RJD, JDU, and BJD. Additionally, there is one seat each held by TDP, YSRCP, Samajwadi Party, NCP, and Shiv Sena.

According to estimates, the BJP-led NDA is poised to gain six seats following the inclusion of JDU and Ajit Pawar's NCP faction into the ruling coalition. Currently, the NDA holds a total of 114 seats in the Upper House, with the BJP accounting for 93. On the other hand, the Congress currently has 30 seats.

Despite the BJP notable wins in three key Hindi heartland states during the December Assembly elections and the recent political realignments in Bihar, the forthcoming biennial polls are unlikely to bring about substantial alterations in the composition of the upper House.