MC Explainer | Why Sonia Gandhi dumped Rae Bareli for Rajasthan Rajya Sabha seat

Rae Bareli and Amethi have long been considered strongholds of the Nehru-Gandhi family's political influence in India.

Sonia Gandhi's decision to pursue a Rajya Sabha seat from Rajasthan instead of contesting the Rae Bareli Lok Sabha constituency represents a significant shift in Indian politics, signalling changes in priorities, strategies, and internal dynamics within the Congress party. Also, the choice has the potential to influence both the Grand Old Party's electoral performance and its internal functioning, particularly with the upcoming Lok Sabha elections scheduled for April-May. Traditionally, Rae Bareli and Amethi have been bastions of the Nehru-Gandhi family's political influence, underscoring their deep-rooted connection with the constituents in Uttar Pradesh.

If Maneka Gandhi, who is actively involved in BJP's politics, decides to contest the next elections, it would indeed ensure the representation of the third generation of the Nehru-Gandhi family in politics. However, if she chooses not to contest, the responsibility of upholding the relevance of the Congress party and the Gandhi family would predominantly fall on the fourth-generation leaders, namely Rahul Gandhi and Priyanka Gandhi Vadra.

Sonia's decision to run for the Rajya Sabha election in Rajasthan instead of a southern state, even though the Congress Party is strong there and likely to win, sends important messages throughout India's political scene.

Priyanka's Potential Candidacy in Rae Bareli Sparks Political Interest

The possibility of Priyanka, Congress General Secretary, contesting from Rae Bareli in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections has indeed been raised following Sonia's decision to move to the upper House. An interesting aspect of the parliamentary journey of the Gandhi family is the contrast between Sonia's choice to enter the Rajya Sabha in the later phase of her political career and the parliamentary career of former prime minister Indira Gandhi, which began as a Rajya Sabha member.

There is one school of thought that believes that Priyanka, known for her charismatic presence and long-standing association with Rae Bareli, is likely to emerge as a key figure in the Congress's revitalisation strategy for the state in anticipation of the upcoming Lok Sabha polls.

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Contemplating the Ramifications of a Possible Defeat

The decision of the Samajwadi Party to allot the Amethi and Rae Bareli constituencies to the Congress for the 2024 Lok Sabha elections demonstrartes a strategic move to maintain the alliance's electoral prospects in Uttar Pradesh. However, reports suggest that victory is no longer assured for Sonia in Rae Bareli has prompted a reconsideration of her candidacy.

The potential defeat in Rae Bareli would have huge implications, including Sonia vacating the spacious bungalow at 10 Janpath in the national capital. Considering various factors, senior Congress leaders, such as former Rajasthan Chief Minister Ashok Gehlot, Rajasthan Pradesh Congress Committee president Govind Singh Dotasara, and Leader of the Opposition in the state assembly Tikaram Jully, have urged Sonia to contest the sole Rajya Sabha seat that the Congress has the potential to secure from Rajasthan.

Priyanka's Victory No Guarantee of 10 Janpath Residence

Political analysts argue that despite the potential candidacy of Priyanka in Rae Bareli and the likelihood of victory, the challenges linked to residing at 10 Janpath remain. Even if Priyanka were to secure a win, her status as a first-time Member of Parliament (MP) wouldn't automatically grant her accommodation at a prestigious location like 10 Janpath.

The Congress party has, therefore, chosen the safer path by nominating Sonia for the upper House. Additionally, 10 Janpath, situated adjacent to the Congress Party headquarters at 24 Akbar Road, would allow Sonia to easily monitor party activities despite her declining health.

Rajasthan Gamble: Cong's Strategic Bid to Strengthen North India Influence

Sonia's selection of Rajasthan underscores the Congress party's emphasis on the Hindi-heartland states, which are vital to its electoral victories. Additionally, her decision to contest from Rajasthan may strategically fortify the party's foothold in North India, amid formidable competition from the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and regional entities. The move also underscores the former Congress chief's enduring significance and proactive involvement in national politics. By choosing a northern state such as Rajasthan, she demonstrates dedication to tackling regional concerns and engaging in wider national discourse and governance.

Sonia's Rajya Sabha Bid from Rajasthan May Go Smoothly

The 77-year-old Sonia, who has filed her nomination for the Rajya Sabha from Rajasthan, has secured victory from Amethi or Rae Bareli six consecutive times since 1999. With the Congress enjoying sufficient strength in the Rajasthan Assembly, Sonia's journey to the Rajya Sabha is expected to be smooth.

In 2018, Sonia resigned as Congress president and passed on the leadership to Rahul, who later resigned after the party's defeat in the 2019 general elections. Despite her initial reluctance and health concerns, Sonia assumed the role of acting president until Mallikarjun Kharge was elected to the position in October 2022.

While Rahul lost from Amethi in 2019 and is currently an MP from Wayanad in Kerala, there is a strong possibility of his return to the family's traditional stronghold, as his absence from Uttar Pradesh might send the wrong signal to voters. There is even speculation about Varun Gandhi joining the party to strengthen its prospects in Uttar Pradesh.

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Maintaining Presence in Hindi Heartland Amid Past Criticism

Contesting from Rajasthan would indeed signal that the Gandhi family maintains its presence in the Hindi heartland. However, Rahul's decision to contest from Wayanad and Amethi in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections faced criticism both within and outside the party. More significantly, the Congress faced a massive setback in the Hindi heartland during the 2019 elections, with Rahul himself losing his traditional seat of Amethi to current Union minister Smriti Irani.

The defeat was big, resulting in the party's failure to secure a single seat in Rajasthan, Haryana, Uttarakhand, Himachal Pradesh, and Delhi. Additionally, it only won one seat each in Madhya Pradesh, Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, and Jharkhand, and secured merely two seats in Chhattisgarh.

Sonia has been representing Uttar Pradesh in the Lok Sabha continuously for the last two and a half decades, since she entered active politics by contesting the Lok Sabha elections from Amethi in 1999, aiming to lead the Congress out of a transitional phase. Even during the era of BJP dominance that began in 2014, Rae Bareli remains the only seat in the state where the Congress has maintained its foothold.

The former Congress president, who passed on the legacy of Amethi to Rahul Gandhi in 2004 and established Rae Bareli as her political base, has served as an MP from there for the past 20 years. Given this context, Sonia's decision to opt for a Rajya Sabha seat wouldn't have been an easy one. The chances of Rahul overcoming his previous defeat and contesting elections from Amethi again remain viable.

1991-1999: Gandhi Family's Absence from Parliament, Particularly in UP 

The period between 1991 and 1999 marked a significant absence of members from the Gandhi family in Parliament, particularly from the Congress party in Uttar Pradesh. Following the tragic death of former prime minister Rajiv Gandhi, no member of the family remained in Parliament representing the Congress party in Uttar Pradesh during this time.

However, Maneka Gandhi, who initially entered the Lok Sabha in 1989 representing the Janata Dal, emerged as a key political figure during this period. Despite facing defeat in the 1991 elections, Maneka Gandhi secured victory in 1996 and has since maintained a continuous presence in Parliament.