The India Meteorological Department (IMD) on April 15 forecast an above normal monsoon for 2025, predicting neutral El Nino conditions.
Quantitatively, the monsoon rainfall (June-September) over the country as a whole is likely to be 105% of the long period average (LPA), which is 87 cm, with a model error of +/-5%, said the weather department in its first estimate for SouthWest Monsoon.
"The southwest monsoon seasonal (June to September) rainfall over the country as a whole during 2025 is most likely to be above normal(>104% of the Long Period Average (LPA). Quantitatively, the seasonal rainfall over the country as a whole is likely to be 105% of LPA with a model error of ± 5%," said IMD in a press release.
IMD said it sees most parts of the country to receive normal to above normal monsoon, which falls in the range of 96-105% of the Long Period Average.
IMD said neutral El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) condition are likely to continue during the 2025 monsoon season. M Mohapatra, DGM, IMD said, "Forecast indicates that neutral El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) conditions are likely to continue during the monsoon season."
IMD also forecast neutral Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) conditions during the southwest monsoon season.
IMD would issue the updated forecasts for monsoon season rainfall in the last week of May 2025.
El Nino conditions, associated with below-normal monsoon rainfall in the Indian subcontinent, are unlikely to develop this time, Mohapatra said.
Parts of the country are already battling extreme heat and a significantly high number of heat wave days are expected in the April to June period. This could strain power grids and result in water shortages.
The monsoon is crucial for India's agriculture sector, which supports the livelihood of about 42.3 percent of the population and contributes 18.2 per cent to the country's GDP.
Fifty-two per cent of the net cultivated area relies on the primary rain-bearing system. It is also crucial for the replenishing of reservoirs critical for drinking water, apart from power generation across the country.
A prediction of normal rainfall during the monsoon season, therefore, comes as a huge relief to the nation.
However, normal cumulative rainfall does not guarantee uniform temporal and spatial distribution of rain across the country, with climate change further increasing the variability of the rain-bearing system.
Climate scientists say the number of rainy days is declining while heavy rain events (more rain over a short period) are increasing, leading to frequent droughts and floods.
With inputs from PTI
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