Since Narendra Modi-led NDA's landmark victory in the 2014 Lok Sabha election, India's electoral course has followed a familiar pattern marked by the consistent expansion of BJP. Though the saffron party suffered a few setbacks here and there while Congress showed rare glimpses of fightback, nothing changed much at the macro level. And then came 2024.
2024 will go down as one of the most tumultuous political years in India's electoral history since the fortunes of both BJP and Congress witnessed wild fluctuations over the last 12 months. The big takeaway from the year is the dramatic arc charted by BJP, with the party first losing its winning momentum in Lok Sabha polls and later regaining it in state elections following an impressive course correction. Here's a look back at the big elections that shaped the year:
Lok Sabha elections: Reset
"Ab ki Baar, 400 paar" was the slogan that flew thick and fast in the first half of the year. The BJP kick-started 2024 with a bang, riding on a resplendent display of religiosity during the inauguration of Ram Temple in Ayodhya. Prime Minister Narendra Modi fulfilled a long-standing promise of the saffron party by dedicating a 'bhavya' Ram Temple in Ayodhya to the people of India. Many political pundits predicted that if Lok Sabha elections were held immediately after the January 22 inauguration, PM Modi's BJP would rack up an unprecedented number of seats in the lower house. That was also when the "400 paar" slogan took wings.
In exit as well as opinion polls, media channels predicted at least 350 seats for the NDA in the Lok Sabha polls. At one point, BJP's return to power almost appeared axiomatic. However, the premature jubilation came to a halt on June 4 when the results of the Lok Sabha elections indicated a coalition sarkar, not 400-paar.
BJP, on its own, failed to secure a Lok Sabha majority for the first time since 2014. The party lost over 60-odd seats in the lower house and the NDA fell short of the 300-mark. For perspective, BJP alone won 303 seats in 2019. On the other hand, a spirited comeback by Congress powered the INDIA bloc to 234 seats in the Lok Sabha polls. The grand old party almost doubled its 2019 seat count to 99 this time. The writing on the wall was clear: the people did repose their faith in PM Modi but with much less fanfare than usual. The saffron party suffered the biggest jolt in the politically crucial Uttar Pradesh, where Akhilesh Yadav's Samajwadi Party won the highest number of seats.
The BJP’s internal assessment blamed the performance on these broad factors: a consolidation of Dalit and OBC votes against the saffron party, mismanagement in Uttar Pradesh, a spirited performance by the opposition INDIA bloc, and poor candidate selection.
The results also meant that BJP had to cede more bargaining space to tricky allies like Chandrababu Naidu from TDP and Nitish Kumar of JD(U). This was all the more evident in the first full Budget of the NDA 3.0 in July when Union finance minister Nirmala Sitharaman had to account for the wishlist of allies.
Haryana and Maharashtra: Revival
The opposition bloc INDIA, which was formed in 2023, exceeded expectations in the general election and managed to slow down the Modi juggernaut after a decade. In the aftermath of the Lok Sabha polls, Congress and its allies got the much-needed momentum to put BJP on the back foot and widen their presence. On paper, Haryana and Maharashtra were the ideal states for the coup de grace.
In Haryana, BJP was facing widespread anti-incumbency with the dominating groups — Jats and farmers — turning their backs on the party in the Lok Sabha polls. Not to mention, BJP lost its key ally JJP at the start of the year and had to replace its chief minister (from ML Khattar to Nayab Singh Saini) just months before the state elections. In Maharashtra too, the Lok Sabha results portended a bad road ahead for the Mahayuti of BJP, Ajit Pawar's NCP and Eknath Shinde's Shiv Sena. The state was heavily fragmented and the other halves of NCP and Shiv Sena — factions led by Sharad Pawar and Uddhav Thackeray, respectively — were hoping to tap into the sentimental factor in the state elections. But BJP changed the game again.
In October, the party secured power in Haryana for a third straight term and posted its best performance in history. Weeks later, a stunning BJP performance powered Mahayuti to a landslide victory in Maharashtra and reduced the Maha Vikas Aghadi of Congress, Shiv Sena (UBT) and NCP (SP) to the margins. The impressive comeback by BJP once again restored faith in the leadership of Narendra Modi and helped the party strengthen its pole position in Indian politics. From social engineering and candidate selection to mending fences with disgruntled allies, BJP took valuable lessons from the Lok Sabha elections and fine-tuned its post-Lok Sabha strategy.
On the other hand, Congress's moment in the sun following the general election remained short-lived as the grand old party once again faced questions regarding its position within the INDIA bloc. Congress's failure to outclass BJP in two key state elections further weakened its position in the opposition bloc, with some even suggesting that TMC's Mamata Banerjee would be the right leader to shepherd the alliance.
With wind in its sails, BJP is now looking at 2025 with a renewed vigour after briefly looking vulnerable for the first time since 2014. Delhi and Bihar are the two prized states going to polls in 2025. Congress and allies will have to re-draw the strategy and fix the uneasy power tussle among themselves to wrest the momentum yet again. For now, it seems like a Herculean task.
Comebacks and surprises
2024 was also a defining year for regional parties across crucial states like Odisha, Andhra Pradesh, Jammu and Kashmir and Jharkhand.
Andhra Pradesh and Odisha voted alongside the Lok Sabha elections and both states saw power change hands.
In Andhra Pradesh, Chandrababu Naidu's TDP scripted a dream comeback after stitching a strategic alliance with BJP and Pawan Kalyan's Jana Sena. The alliance won a staggering 164 seats in the 175-member assembly, completely decimating the incumbent YSR Congress led by Jagan Mohan Reddy. Naidu's TDP alone won 135 seats at a stellar strike rate of nearly 94%. The revival of TDP is one of the biggest stories of the year. Naidu not only made a roaring return in the state but also became a key cog in the NDA government, since BJP needed allies like TDP to retain power.
Meanwhile, in Odisha, BJP scripted history by trouncing the powerful BJD led by Naveen Patnaik, ending its 24-year-long iron grip on the state. The saffron party won 78 seats in the 147-member assembly while BJD managed only 51. This was the first time that BJP formed a government in Odisha, marking a new chapter in a state that has historically been dominated by Congress and BJD.
Later in the year, the poll panel finally announced elections in the Union Territory of Jammu and Kashmir in October. This was the first time in almost a decade that the Valley witnessed elections for the legislative assembly. It was also the first elections since the delimitation exercise. The people of J&K picked the old alliance of National Conference and Congress to lead the UT and snubbed the Mehbooba Mufti-led PDP, which was the last regional party in power before the special status was scrapped. The NC-Congress alliance won 49 seats in the 90-member assembly, with the Farooq Abdullah-led party alone winning 42 seats. The BJP, too, posted its best-ever performance in Jammu, winning 29 out of the 43 seats in the region. The NC once again selected Omar Abdullah as the chief minister of Jammu and Kashmir, reinstating him after his tenure from 2008 to 2014.
Just like J&K, elections in Jharkhand was another feather in the cap for the INDIA bloc with the JMM-Congress alliance managing to keep its grip on power. Despite facing setbacks and instability earlier this year, the ruling alliance managed to win 56 seats in the 81-member assembly. The BJP, which was hoping to make a comeback after levelling allegations of corruption against Hemant Soren and amplifying the "infiltrator" broadside, had to settle for the second spot again. The party and its allies could only muster up 24 seats.
Rajya Sabha polls and by-elections
The first half of 2024 also witnessed heated Rajya Sabha elections, which saw large-scale cross-voting by MLAs in favour of BJP. The BJP pulled off victories in 10 out of the 15 seats that were up for grabs in Uttar Pradesh, Karnataka and Himachal Pradesh in the February 27 elections.
Of these, the saffron party won two seats due to cross-voting by MLAs in Himachal Pradesh and Uttar Pradesh. In Karnataka, BJP suffered a similar fate after its MLA ST Somashekar voted in favour of Congress. Overall, the elections helped BJP strengthen its position in the upper house. Later, with the help of six nominated members, the BJP-led NDA attained a slender majority in Rajya Sabha, which is crucial for passing key legislation.
Another election that made big headlines this year was the Lok Sabha bypoll in Wayanad. While the bypoll itself did not make much difference to the Lok Sabha numbers, the election was significant since it saw Priyanka Gandhi Vadra make her long-awaited electoral debut. Priyanka contested as the Congress candidate from the seat after her brother Rahul Gandhi vacated the constituency and opted to represent Rae Bareli in the lower house. Priyanka logged an easy victory from the Kerala constituency and became the newest Gandhi member to enter the Lok Sabha.
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