10 big takeaways from Bihar election results: NDA's double century, MGB's lowest total, PK's golden duck

The much-hyped entry of Prashant Kishor's Jan Suraaj also failed to translate into numbers with the party drawing a blank on debut. Meanwhile, Asaddudin Owaisi-led AIMIM is leading in as many as 5 seats, and may emerge as the fifth best-performing party in the state.

Here are the big takeaways from the Bihar election results:

NDA landslide: Firing on all cylinders

The NDA is poised for its biggest victory since 2010 with all partners posting a stunning performance in the election. The BJP is set to win over 91 seats at a strike rate of over 90%, JD(U) is set to win 80 seats at a strike rate of nearly 80%, and LJP (RV) is expected to win 22 seats at a strike rate of 76%. Even smaller allies like HAM (S) and RLM are expected to win 5 and 4 seats respectively, at strike rate of 83% and 66%. The combined vote share of the NDA allies is nearly 50%.

The results indicate that NDA's social engineering math was the major winning combination in the election, with BJP bringing in the upper caste votes, Nitish consolidating EBC and women voters and Chirag's LJP and other parties delivering the OBC votes.

The results are an impressive improvement from the 2020 figures, when NDA posted a narrow victory with a combined seat share of 125. The BJP is also to emerge as the single largest party in the state, improving its tally to 91 in 2025 from 74 in 2020. The JD(U) will be a close second, with a much better improvement of 80+ seats in 2025 from 43 in 2020.

10 Baar, Nitish Kumar

Written off time and again, Nitish Kumar has again shown that his grit cuts deeper than any criticism that comes his way. The JD(U) stalwart ushered in an era of development and peace in a state that suffered heavily during the jungle era days of Lalu and Rabri. He gave Bihar a much-needed touch of governance while delivering the basics - from roads to industry. He also championed the cause of women, took a bold gamble by imposing prohibition and improved the law & order situation. He also managed to consolidate the EBC votes (approx. 36% of the state's population) and mobilised the influential Kurmis (2.87% of state's population), the OBC community he hails from.

All this has helped Nitish keep a firm grip on power and remain the enduring mainstay of Bihar politics despite challenges like anti-incumbency and concerns over health.

Modi on the ballot

The Narendra Modi factor worked its magic on BJP yet again with the Prime Minister helping the party post a stunning performance and dislodge regional players to emerge as the single largest party. From addressing dozens of rallies to driving a multi-layered narrative centred on development and national issues, Modi demonstrated yet again that he can deliver strong numbers for the BJP even in the absence of a prominent local face.

Prince who couldn't become king

Tejashwi Yadav's wait to assume the chief minister will continue for now as the RJD scion failed to dislodge "chacha" Nitish and carve a space for himself. Though he ran a spirited campaign like 2020, it appears that the ghost of jungle raj continues to haunt the young RJD leader as he again failed to emerge from Lalu's shadows and convince voters of his party’s promise of development-driven change.

The election also proved that the Muslim-Yadav (MY) combination, which was once the strength of RJD, is now turning into its weakness as the party is unable to capture votes beyond its traditional base. Notably, RJD, like 2020, posted the highest vote share in the state this time as well at nearly 23%. This shows that while Mahagathbandhan's MY base may have remained intact, the reverse consolidation in favour of NDA proved fatal for the alliance.

'No, SIR', says Bihar to MGB

The Congress all but hijacked the campaign narrative in the last few months by focusing heavily on the vote chori allegations against th Election Commission following the Special Intensive Revision (SIR) exercise. Rahul Gandhi spearheaded the charge and took out a mega "Voter Adhikar Yatra" across Bihar in a bid to turn it into a central election issue. However, it appears that the SIR issue did not resonate with the voters of Bihar whose immediate concerns are far removed from complicated claims of election manipulation. The issue did not allow Tejashwi to focus on his own development and youth-focused campaign to counter the NDA's welfare push, ultimately leading to the collective debacle of INDIA bloc.

Nari Shakti powers Nitish rise

The growing importance of women voters has become more and more obvious in every subsequent assembly election. The Bihar election 2025 may well become a case study on how the women vote became the ultimate winning mantra for the NDA. The two-phased voting saw a huge increase in the number of women voters, indicating that the welfare push by the Nitish government made a real sentimental impact on the ground. The women-centric schemes of the government, including the gamechanger Mukhyamantri Mahila Rojgar Yojana (MMRY) under which the NDA credited Rs 10,000 to the bank accounts of some 1.25 crore women, may have helped the NDA's magnificent performance in the state.

PK eats humble pie

Prashant Kishor was the man making the most noise in media cricles in the run up to the polls, due to his coveted record as an astute poll strategist. However, the man behind several electoral victories faltered in his debut election with his Jan Suraaj failing to win a single seat despite contesting on all 243 constituencies. In fact, his prediction that JD(U) will not even win 25 seats this time also fell way off the mark. The only thing that Kishor perhaps managed to achieve was to set a campaign narrative, bringing back focus on migration and jobs. While he failed on debut, PK still has an opportunity to go back to the drawing board and carve a space for himself at a time when RJD has been pushed a historic low and Nitish is perhaps staring at his final term as CM.

NDA dominates MGB in Muslim seats, SIR impact constituencies

The results show that NDA dominated the Grand Alliance across the board, including on the 53 dominated seats and 106 seats impacted by the SIR exercise. In Muslim-heavy seats, NDA is leading in 43 constituencies while INDIA is ahead on just 6. Similarly, in the SIR-impact seats, NDA is ahead in 88 seats while INDIA is leading in just 15. This again signals a massive reverse consolidation in favour of NDA, blunting the impact of the formidable MY factor for the opposition.

Reversal of Lok Sabha script

After suffering a major erosion of seats in the 2024 Lok Sabha election, the BJP-led NDA has yet again reinforced its emphatic turnaround with victory in another state election. The alliance punctured the INDIA bloc gains shortly after the Lok Sabha polls after victories in Haryana and Maharashtra. Earlier this year, BJP made a remarkable comeback in Delhi after over 25 years. Now, the landslide in Bihar caps a resounding year for NDA and gives it the momentum it needs ahead of crucial electoral battles in 2026.

Exit polls get it right but off the mark

Exit polls unanimously predicted a comfortable victory for NDA. But what they failed to capture was the magnitude of the win. Pollsters pegged the NDA tally anywhere between 121 and 167 seats. However, the NDA is on its way to steamroll all predictions and win over 200 seats, way more than what any exit poll had managed to predict. So while the pollsters did call the election right, they got the data wrong.