Sell NHPC; target of Rs 72: ICICI Securities

ICICI Securities research report on NHPC

NHPC has reported a steady result in Q4FY25 – standalone revenue grew 15% YoY to INR 21bn, EBITDA grew 4% YoY to INR 9.4bn while adjusted PAT, at INR 8bn, grew 14% YoY. Growth was mainly due to a reversal of water charges in the base quarter. Plant availability for FY25 stood at 73.9% vs. 77.6% in FY24; the lower availability was due to damage to Teesta-V power station due to flash floods in H1FY25. Teesta-V is still inoperative and NHPC expects it to resume operations in Q4FY26. Meanwhile, the under-recovery thereon (estimated at INR 4bn annually) shall impact earnings for the next 3–4 quarters. NHPC has commissioned all four units of Parbati II (800MW) and 107MW of solar capacity in Apr’25. Subansiri (2000MW) is expected to be commissioned in phases by Q1FY27.

Outlook

We downgrade the stock to SELL, from Hold, given the recent run in the stock price, with a revised TP of INR 72 (INR 76 earlier).