Reduce Indian Oil Corporation; target of Rs 122: Prabhudas Lilladher

Prabhudas Lilladher's research report on Indian Oil Corporation

Indian Oil Corporation (IOCL) reported an EBITDA of Rs135.7bn, up 90.7% QoQ (PLe: Rs68.2bn, BBGe:Rs78.7bn). Adj PAT came in at Rs72.6bn (up 231% QoQ, PLe: Rs17.5bn, BBGe:Rs14.7bn). There was an exceptional gain of Rs10.5mn for VAT input tax credit. Reported GRM came in at US$7.85/bbl, up 166% QoQ (PLe: US$6/bbl). GMM stood at Rs6.8/ltr (PLe:Rs3.5/ltr). In Q1-TD, gross margin on petrol/diesel has risen to Rs12.3/9.7/ltr. However, average Singapore GRM continues to remain weak at US$3/bbl and the company is likely to report inventory losses amid sharp decline in Brent prices. Petchem weakness is also likely to persist and the company has indicated an under-recovery of Rs170/cyl in Q1FY26 on the LPG front.

Outlook

We accordingly build in a GRM of US$6/6/bbl forFY25/26/27E. On the marketing front, we build in a GMM of Rs4.3/4.3/ltr for FY25/26/27E. We maintain ‘REDUCE’ rating on the stock with a TP of Rs122 based on 0.8x avg FY27E P/BV.