Reduce Bharat Petroleum Corporation; target of Rs 269: Prabhudas Lilladher

Prabhudas Lilladher's research report on Bharat Petroleum Corporation

Bharat Petroleum Corporation (BPCL) reported lower than expected Q1FY25 results with an EBITDA of Rs56.5bn (down 38.7% QoQ, PLe: Rs61.7bn). Adj PAT came in at Rs30.1bn (down 45.9% QoQ, PLe: Rs33.1bn). The company reported a GRM at US$7.9/bbl. GMMs as per our calculation came in at Rs4.8/ltr. Consol debt stands at Rs427bn with a cash of Rs150bn. Going ahead, given the weak Singapore GRM and factoring in demand concerns in the long term we build in a GRM of US$6.5/6/bbl for FY25/26E. On the marketing front, we estimate a gross marketing margin of Rs4.5/4.1/ltr for FY25/26E.

Outlook

The stock is currently trading at 1.6/1.5x FY25/26 P/BV. We maintain ‘Reduce’ rating with a TP of Rs269 based on 1.3x FY26 P/BV.

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