Neutral Phoenix Mills; target of Rs 1672: Motilal Oswal

Motilal Oswal's research report on Phoenix Mills

The company reported revenue of INR10.2b, -22%/+4% YoY/QoQ (16% below estimate), while EBITDA came in at INR5.6b, -11%/+1% YoY/QoQ (27% below estimate). Margin stood at 55.1%, +708bp/-163bp YoY/QoQ (848bp below our estimate). Adj. PAT stood at INR2.7b, -17%/+3% YoY/QoQ (25% below estimate). Margin stood at 26.7%, +170bp/-43bp YoY/QoQ (315bp below estimate). In FY25, revenue was down 4% YoY at INR38b, broadly in line with our estimates. EBITDA declined 1% YoY at INR22b (9% below estimate). Margin was up 195bp YoY at 56.7%. Adjusted PAT stood at INR9.8b, down 10% YoY (9% below estimate). PAT margin stood at 25.8%, down 183bp YoY. The Board of Directors has recommended a final dividend of INR2.5 per equity share (i.e. 125% of the face value of INR2 each), subject to shareholders’ approval.

Outlook

We remain confident in long-term consumption growth, which is expected to be at least ~7-8%. We value mature malls at 20x EV/EBITDA and new malls at 25x EV/EBITDA. Reiterate Neutral with a revised TP of INR1,672.