In an interview to CNBC-TV18, Mayuresh Joshi of Angel Broking shared his readings and outlook on specific stocks and sectors.
Below is the verbatim transcript of Mayuresh Joshi's interview to Latha Venkatesh & Anuj Singhal.
Anuj: Your thoughts on the real estate pack because we saw big moves yesterday on Indiabulls Real Estate, Housing Development and Infrastructure, DLF, anything that you would want to buy?
A: I think the kind of announcements the Prime Minister has made, any stock which is lean towards affordable housing will see a sentimental push through but what really needs to be seen in the context is how demand supply dynamics pan out, how much demand comes through and how much supply is ready to meet that demand. So in that context the real estate stocks have been reeling under dual pressure - a) inventory not getting sold because of demand not coming through on the existing sales that they are probably doing and b) the kind of high leverage that already exists on their balance sheet, so that is not giving them any comfort on the operating side as well as cash flows which have remained extremely soft. This scenario might very well continue with demonetisation drive that has taken place for at least two quarters.
Therefore, I will be tempted to look at a few stocks which are based out of south India but not at this point of time. I think there will be better opportunities to enter these stocks over the next few months.Latha: How is market reading goods and services tax (GST)? Is it not bothered?
A: I think some disappointment will come through but the larger picture that the market is looking at this point is that GST will get implemented. However, if it gets delayed by three or six months - that disappointment, the market will very well carry into, but the larger picture that the market is looking at this are how the Budget will come through, what kind of announcements come through in the Budget and more importantly what happens with the state elections. Uttar Pradesh state is going to be extremely critical and the way the direction goes to the UP state will drive down the agenda going forward for the general elections in 2019. So it is not that the central government will step-down on its reforms but it does create a sentimental impact. So more than GST it is Budget and the state elections that the market will be more worried about at least at this point of time.Latha: Some of the heavily indebted companies have been rising. Is there a trading play over there?
A: The possibility still exists. However, from medium to long-term perspective it still makes sense to have a bottom up approach and with that sense, a couple of midcap ideas that I currently like at this point of time is Mirza International. The numbers have not been so encouraging in Q1, Q2 and do not expect the numbers to recover in Q3 as well but in terms of its product profile - Red Tape is a well-known brand, branded sales expected to grow in excess of 21-22 percent odd to Rs 260 crore odd. It has got huge export presence, 75 percent of sales come from export within the export markets like UK, USA, the Middle East account for a major chunk. So in that sense earnings growth in excess of 10 percent, topline growth in excess of 10 percent not ruled out, Rs 1,125 crore topline, Rs 95 crore of bottomline, earnings per share (EPS) close to 7.6-7.8 by FY18. The acquisition of Genesis Footwear will increase its production size from 5.4 to 6.4 million units. Its value accretive from an earnings perspective as well, so Mirza International in a staggered manner looks interesting.
The other stock with in lieu of demonetisation is the theme, the balance of plant (BoP) part, on the power part - Techno Electric and Engineering Company is a stock that I like at lower levels. This stock, with an order book of Rs 2,600 crore on the engineering, procurement and construction (EPC) side of its business is growing decently, return on equity (RoE) in excess of 35 percent, debt free EPC business at the current juncture, probably free cash flow yields in excess of 4-5 percent, the wind business is doing reasonably okay with great availability in south and specifically in Tamil Nadu increasing, debt to equity at 0.4 times, EBITDA margins at 19-20 percent. One cannot ask more for a company employed in capital goods space.
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